CINF-2013.9.30-10Q


UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549
FORM 10-Q
 
(Mark one)
þ        QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934. 
For the quarterly period ended September 30, 2013.
 
¨       TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934. 
For the transition period from _____________________ to _____________________.
Commission file number 0-4604
 
CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
 
Ohio
 
31-0746871
(State or other jurisdiction of
incorporation or organization)
 
(I.R.S. Employer Identification
No.)
 
 
 
6200 S. Gilmore Road, Fairfield, Ohio
 
45014-5141
(Address of principal executive offices)
 
(Zip code)
 
Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (513) 870-2000
 
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days. 
þYes ¨ No
 
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant has submitted electronically and posted on its corporate website, if any, every Interactive Data File required to be submitted and posted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T (§232.405 of this chapter) during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to submit and post such files).
þYes ¨ No
 
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a nonaccelerated filer or a smaller reporting company. See definition of “large accelerated filer,” “accelerated filer” and “smaller reporting company" in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.
 
þ Large accelerated filer ¨ Accelerated filer ¨ Nonaccelerated filer ¨ Smaller reporting company 
(Do not check if a smaller reporting company)
 
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act):
¨Yes þ No
 
As of October 21, 2013, there were 163,830,717 shares of common stock outstanding.





CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION
FORM 10-Q FOR THE QUARTER ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2013
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 



Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 2



Part I – Financial Information
Item 1.        Financial Statements (unaudited)
 
CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
(In millions except per share data)
 
September 30,
 
December 31,
 
 
2013
 
2012
ASSETS
 
 

 
 

Investments
 
 

 
 

Fixed maturities, at fair value (amortized cost: 2013—$8,502; 2012—$8,222)
 
$
9,038

 
$
9,093

Equity securities, at fair value (cost: 2013—$2,471; 2012—$2,369)
 
3,984

 
3,373

Other invested assets
 
68

 
68

Total investments
 
13,090

 
12,534

Cash and cash equivalents
 
511

 
487

Investment income receivable
 
115

 
115

Finance receivable
 
79

 
75

Premiums receivable
 
1,393

 
1,214

Reinsurance recoverable
 
584

 
615

Prepaid reinsurance premiums
 
26

 
26

Deferred policy acquisition costs
 
576

 
470

Land, building and equipment, net, for company use (accumulated depreciation: 2013—$412; 2012—$397)
 
211

 
217

Other assets
 
54

 
61

Separate accounts
 
700

 
734

Total assets
 
$
17,339

 
$
16,548

LIABILITIES
 
 

 
 

Insurance reserves
 
 

 
 

Loss and loss expense reserves
 
$
4,307

 
$
4,230

Life policy and investment contract reserves
 
2,373

 
2,295

Unearned premiums
 
2,026

 
1,792

Other liabilities
 
639

 
660

Deferred income tax
 
542

 
453

Note payable
 
104

 
104

Long-term debt and capital lease obligations
 
832

 
827

Separate accounts
 
700

 
734

Total liabilities
 
11,523

 
11,095

Commitments and contingent liabilities (Note 12)
 

 

SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
 
 

 
 

Common stock, par value—$2 per share; (authorized: 2013 and 2012—500 million shares; issued and outstanding: 2013—198 million shares and 2012—197 million shares)
 
396

 
394

Paid-in capital
 
1,177

 
1,134

Retained earnings
 
4,214

 
4,021

Accumulated other comprehensive income
 
1,267

 
1,129

Treasury stock at cost (2013 and 2012—34 million shares)
 
(1,238
)
 
(1,225
)
Total shareholders' equity
 
5,816

 
5,453

Total liabilities and shareholders' equity
 
$
17,339

 
$
16,548

 
Accompanying notes are an integral part of these condensed consolidated financial statements.
 


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 3



CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF INCOME
 
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
(In millions except per share data)
 
2013
 
2012
 
2013
 
2012
REVENUES
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Earned premiums
 
$
992

 
$
889

 
$
2,877

 
$
2,605

Investment income, net of expenses
 
133

 
132

 
392

 
395

Realized investment gains, net
 
22

 
10

 
77

 
29

Fee revenues
 
2

 
1

 
6

 
4

Other revenues
 
3

 
3

 
7

 
8

Total revenues
 
1,152

 
1,035

 
3,359

 
3,041

BENEFITS AND EXPENSES
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Insurance losses and policyholder benefits
 
642

 
571

 
1,841

 
1,840

Underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses
 
312

 
296

 
919

 
857

Interest expense
 
13

 
14

 
40

 
41

Other operating expenses
 
3

 
2

 
12

 
10

 Total benefits and expenses
 
970

 
883

 
2,812

 
2,748

INCOME BEFORE INCOME TAXES
 
182

 
152

 
547

 
293

PROVISION FOR INCOME TAXES
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Current
 
46

 
34

 
137

 
60

Deferred
 
5

 
7

 
15

 
4

Total provision for income taxes
 
51

 
41

 
152

 
64

NET INCOME
 
$
131

 
$
111

 
$
395

 
$
229

PER COMMON SHARE
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Net income—basic
 
$
0.80

 
$
0.69

 
$
2.42

 
$
1.41

Net income—diluted
 
0.79

 
0.68

 
2.39

 
1.40

Accompanying notes are an integral part of these condensed consolidated financial statements.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 4




CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME
 
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
(In millions)
 
2013
 
2012
 
2013
 
2012
NET INCOME
 
$
131

 
$
111

 
$
395

 
$
229

OTHER COMPREHENSIVE INCOME
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Unrealized gains on investments available-for-sale, net of tax of $22, $89, $61 and $150, respectively
 
40

 
164

 
113

 
278

Amortization of pension actuarial loss and prior service cost, net of tax of $1, $1, $3 and $2, respectively
 
1

 
1

 
4

 
3

Change in life deferred acquisition costs, life policy reserves and other, net of tax of $2, $(2), $10 and $(5), respectively
 
5

 
(4
)
 
21

 
(11
)
Other comprehensive income, net of tax
 
46

 
161

 
138

 
270

COMPREHENSIVE INCOME
 
$
177

 
$
272

 
$
533

 
$
499

Accompanying notes are an integral part of these condensed consolidated financial statements.


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 5



CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
 
 
Common Stock
 
 
 
 
 
Accumulated
Other
 
 
 
Total
Share-
(In millions)
 
Outstanding Shares
 
Amount
 
Paid-in Capital
 
Retained Earnings
 
Comprehensive Income
 
Treasury Stock
 
holders' Equity
Balance as reported December 31, 2011
 
162

 
$
393

 
$
1,096

 
$
3,885

 
$
901

 
$
(1,220
)
 
$
5,055

Cumulative effect of a change in accounting for deferred policy acquisition costs, net of tax
 

 

 

 
(22
)
 

 

 
(22
)
Balance as adjusted December 31, 2011
 
162

 
393

 
1,096

 
3,863

 
901

 
(1,220
)
 
5,033

Net income
 

 

 

 
229

 

 

 
229

Other comprehensive income, net
 

 

 

 

 
270

 

 
270

Dividends declared
 

 

 

 
(196
)
 

 

 
(196
)
Stock-based awards exercised and vested
 
1

 
1

 
10

 

 

 
2

 
13

Stock-based compensation
 

 

 
12

 

 

 

 
12

Purchases
 

 

 

 

 

 
(7
)
 
(7
)
Other
 

 

 
1

 

 

 
4

 
5

Balance September 30, 2012
 
163

 
$
394

 
$
1,119

 
$
3,896

 
$
1,171

 
$
(1,221
)
 
$
5,359

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Balance December 31, 2012
 
163

 
$
394

 
$
1,134

 
$
4,021

 
$
1,129

 
$
(1,225
)
 
$
5,453

Net income
 

 

 

 
395

 

 

 
395

Other comprehensive income, net
 

 

 

 

 
138

 

 
138

Dividends declared
 

 

 

 
(202
)
 

 

 
(202
)
Stock-based awards exercised and vested
 
1

 
2

 
27

 

 

 
5

 
34

Stock-based compensation
 

 

 
14

 

 

 

 
14

Purchases
 

 

 

 

 

 
(22
)
 
(22
)
Other
 

 

 
2

 

 

 
4

 
6

Balance September 30, 2013
 
164

 
$
396

 
$
1,177

 
$
4,214

 
$
1,267

 
$
(1,238
)
 
$
5,816

 
Accompanying notes are an integral part of these condensed consolidated financial statements.
 


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 6



CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS

 
 
Nine months ended September 30,
(In millions)
 
2013
 
2012
CASH FLOWS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES
 
 

 
 

Net income
 
$
395

 
$
229

Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities:
 
 

 
 

Depreciation and amortization
 
30

 
32

Realized gains on investments, net
 
(77
)
 
(29
)
Stock-based compensation
 
14

 
12

Interest credited to contract holders
 
31

 
25

Deferred income tax expense
 
15

 
4

Changes in:
 
 

 
 

Investment income receivable
 

 
3

Premiums and reinsurance receivable
 
(148
)
 
(129
)
Deferred policy acquisition costs
 
(60
)
 
(37
)
Other assets
 
(5
)
 
(4
)
Loss and loss expense reserves
 
77

 
5

Life policy reserves
 
53

 
53

Unearned premiums
 
234

 
185

Other liabilities
 
15

 
33

Current income tax receivable
 
(36
)
 
51

Net cash provided by operating activities
 
538

 
433

CASH FLOWS FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES
 
 

 
 

Sale of fixed maturities
 
28

 
131

Call or maturity of fixed maturities
 
711

 
689

Sale of equity securities
 
178

 
165

Purchase of fixed maturities
 
(1,016
)
 
(914
)
Purchase of equity securities
 
(216
)
 
(325
)
Investment in buildings and equipment, net
 
(5
)
 
(5
)
Investment in finance receivables
 
(26
)
 
(24
)
Collection of finance receivables
 
22

 
24

Change in other invested assets, net
 
4

 
2

Net cash used in investing activities
 
(320
)
 
(257
)
CASH FLOWS FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES
 
 

 
 

Payment of cash dividends to shareholders
 
(195
)
 
(191
)
Proceeds from stock options exercised
 
17

 
6

Contract holders' funds deposited
 
64

 
79

Contract holders' funds withdrawn
 
(78
)
 
(83
)
Excess tax benefits on stock-based compensation
 
10

 
1

Other
 
(12
)
 
(10
)
Net cash used in financing activities
 
(194
)
 
(198
)
Net change in cash and cash equivalents
 
24

 
(22
)
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of year
 
487

 
438

Cash and cash equivalents at end of period
 
$
511

 
$
416

Supplemental disclosures of cash flow information:
 
 

 
 

Interest paid
 
$
27

 
$
28

Income taxes paid
 
169

 
8

Non-cash activities:
 
 

 
 

Conversion of securities
 
$
59

 
$
21

Equipment acquired under capital lease obligations
 
21

 
20

Cashless exercise of stock options
 
22

 
7

 
Accompanying notes are an integral part of these condensed consolidated financial statements.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 7



NOTES TO CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (UNAUDITED)
 
NOTE 1 — ACCOUNTING POLICIES
 
The condensed consolidated financial statements include the accounts of Cincinnati Financial Corporation and its consolidated subsidiaries, each of which is wholly owned. These statements are presented in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP). All intercompany balances and transactions have been eliminated in consolidation.
 
The preparation of financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires us to make estimates and assumptions that affect amounts reported in the financial statements and accompanying notes. Our actual results could differ from those estimates. Our December 31, 2012, condensed consolidated balance sheet amounts are derived from the audited financial statements but do not include all disclosures required by GAAP.
 
Our September 30, 2013, condensed consolidated financial statements are unaudited. Certain financial information that is included in annual financial statements prepared in accordance with GAAP is not required for interim reporting and has been condensed or omitted. We believe that we have made all adjustments, consisting only of normal recurring accruals, that are necessary for fair presentation. These condensed consolidated financial statements should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements included in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K. The results of operations for interim periods do not necessarily indicate results to be expected for the full year.
 
Adopted Accounting Updates
 
ASU 2013-02, Reporting of Amounts Reclassified Out of Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income
 
In February 2013, the Financial Accounting Standards Board issued Accounting Standards Update (ASU) 2013-02, Reporting of Amounts Reclassified Out of Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income. ASU 2013-02 requires entities to present in either a single note or parenthetically on the face of the financial statements, the effect of significant amounts reclassified from each component of accumulated other comprehensive income based on its source and the income statement line items affected by the reclassification. The company adopted this ASU during the first quarter of 2013, and it did not have a material impact on our company’s financial position, cash flows or results of operations. See Note 7, Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income, for further details.
   

 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 8



NOTE 2 – INVESTMENTS
 
The following table provides cost or amortized cost, gross unrealized gains, gross unrealized losses and fair value for our invested assets:
(In millions)
 
Cost or
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
amortized
 
Gross unrealized
 
Fair
At September 30, 2013
 
cost
 
gains
 
losses
 
value
Fixed maturities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

States, municipalities and political subdivisions
 
$
3,046

 
$
146

 
$
17

 
$
3,175

Convertibles and bonds with warrants attached
 
16

 

 

 
16

United States government
 
7

 

 

 
7

Government-sponsored enterprises
 
209

 

 
19

 
190

Foreign government
 
10

 

 

 
10

Commercial mortgage-backed securities
 
79

 

 
3

 
76

Corporate securities
 
5,135

 
454

 
25

 
5,564

Subtotal
 
8,502

 
600

 
64

 
9,038

Equity securities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Common equities
 
2,394

 
1,482

 
3

 
3,873

Preferred equities
 
77

 
34

 

 
111

Subtotal
 
2,471

 
1,516

 
3

 
3,984

Total
 
$
10,973

 
$
2,116

 
$
67

 
$
13,022

At December 31, 2012
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Fixed maturities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

States, municipalities and political subdivisions
 
$
3,040

 
$
250

 
$
1

 
$
3,289

Convertibles and bonds with warrants attached
 
31

 

 

 
31

United States government
 
7

 
1

 

 
8

Government-sponsored enterprises
 
164

 

 

 
164

Foreign government
 
3

 

 

 
3

Commercial mortgage-backed securities
 
27

 
1

 

 
28

Corporate securities
 
4,950

 
622

 
2

 
5,570

Subtotal
 
8,222

 
874

 
3

 
9,093

Equity securities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Common equities
 
2,270

 
977

 
9

 
3,238

Preferred equities
 
99

 
37

 
1

 
135

Subtotal
 
2,369

 
1,014

 
10

 
3,373

Total
 
$
10,591

 
$
1,888

 
$
13

 
$
12,466

 
The net unrealized investment gains in our fixed-maturity portfolio are primarily the result of the current low interest rate environment that increased the fair value of our fixed-maturity portfolio. The three largest net unrealized investment gains in our common stock portfolio are from Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) and The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG), which had a combined net gain position of $264 million. At At September 30, 2013, we had $16 million fair value of hybrid securities included in fixed maturities that follow Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) 815-15-25, Accounting for Certain Hybrid Financial Instruments, compared with $31 million fair value of hybrid securities at December 31, 2012. The hybrid securities are carried at fair value, and the changes in fair value are included in realized investment gains and losses.


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 9



The table below provides fair values and unrealized losses by investment category and by the duration of the securities’ continuous unrealized loss position:
(In millions)
 
Less than 12 months
 
12 months or more
 
Total
 
Total
 
 
Fair
 
Unrealized
 
Fair
 
Unrealized
 
fair
 
unrealized
At September 30, 2013
 
value
 
losses
 
value
 
losses
 
value
 
losses
Fixed maturities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

States, municipalities and political
   subdivisions
 
$
371

 
$
17

 
$
8

 
$

 
$
379

 
$
17

United States government
 
1

 

 

 

 
1

 

Government-sponsored enterprises
 
190

 
19

 

 

 
190

 
19

Foreign government
 
9

 

 

 

 
9

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities
 
62

 
3

 

 

 
62

 
3

Corporate securities
 
526

 
22

 
35

 
3

 
561

 
25

Subtotal
 
1,159

 
61

 
43

 
3

 
1,202

 
64

Equity securities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Common equities
 
74

 
3

 

 

 
74

 
3

Preferred equities
 
4

 

 

 

 
4

 

Subtotal
 
78

 
3

 

 

 
78

 
3

Total
 
$
1,237

 
$
64

 
$
43

 
$
3

 
$
1,280

 
$
67

At December 31, 2012
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Fixed maturities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

States, municipalities and political
   subdivisions
 
$
53

 
$
1

 
$

 
$

 
$
53

 
$
1

Government-sponsored enterprises
 
1

 

 

 

 
1

 

Corporate securities
 
58

 
1

 
17

 
1

 
75

 
2

Subtotal
 
112

 
2

 
17

 
1

 
129

 
3

Equity securities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Common equities
 
107

 
9

 

 

 
107

 
9

Preferred equities
 
4

 
1

 

 

 
4

 
1

Subtotal
 
111

 
10

 

 

 
111

 
10

Total
 
$
223

 
$
12

 
$
17

 
$
1

 
$
240

 
$
13

 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 10



The following table provides investment income, realized investment gains and losses, the change in unrealized investment gains and losses, and other items:
(In millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
2013
 
2012
Investment income summary:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Interest on fixed maturities
 
$
104

 
$
105

 
$
309

 
$
317

Dividends on equity securities
 
30

 
28

 
87

 
81

Other investment income
 
1

 
1

 
2

 
3

Total
 
135

 
134

 
398

 
401

Less investment expenses
 
2

 
2

 
6

 
6

Total
 
$
133

 
$
132

 
$
392

 
$
395

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized investment gains and losses summary:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Fixed maturities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Gross realized gains
 
$
5

 
$
14

 
$
9

 
$
30

Gross realized losses
 

 

 

 

Other-than-temporary impairments
 

 

 
(2
)
 

Equity securities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Gross realized gains
 
15

 
1

 
64

 
30

Gross realized losses
 

 

 

 
(1
)
Other-than-temporary impairments
 

 
(2
)
 

 
(32
)
Securities with embedded derivatives
 

 
(4
)
 
1

 
1

Other
 
2

 
1

 
5

 
1

Total
 
$
22

 
$
10

 
$
77

 
$
29

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Change in unrealized gains and losses summary:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Fixed maturities
 
$
(28
)
 
$
110

 
$
(335
)
 
$
188

Equity securities
 
90

 
143

 
509

 
240

Amortization of pension actuarial loss and
  prior service cost
 
2

 
2

 
7

 
5

Adjustment to deferred acquisition costs and
  life policy reserves
 
9

 
(6
)
 
38

 
(21
)
Other
 
(2
)
 

 
(7
)
 
5

Income taxes on above
 
(25
)
 
(88
)
 
(74
)
 
(147
)
Total
 
$
46

 
$
161

 
$
138

 
$
270

 
During the three and nine months ended September 30, 2013 and 2012, there were no credit losses on fixed-maturity securities for which a portion of other-than-temporary impairment (OTTI) has been recognized in other comprehensive income.
 
During the quarter ended September 30, 2013, there were no other-than-temporarily impaired securities. At September 30, 2013, nine fixed-maturity investments with a total unrealized loss of $3 million had been in an unrealized loss position for 12 months or more. Of that total, no fixed-maturity investments had fair values below
70 percent of amortized cost. There were no equity investments in an unrealized loss position for 12 months or more as of September 30, 2013.
 
At December 31, 2012, four fixed-maturity investments with a total unrealized loss of $1 million had been in an unrealized loss position for 12 months or more. Of that total, no fixed-maturity investments had fair values below
70 percent of amortized cost. There were no equity investments in an unrealized loss position for 12 months or more as of December 31, 2012.
 


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 11



NOTE 3 – FAIR VALUE MEASUREMENTS
 
Fair Value Hierarchy
 
In accordance with accounting guidance for fair value measurements and disclosures, we categorized our financial instruments, based on the priority of the observable and market-based data for the valuation technique used, into a three-level fair value hierarchy. The fair value hierarchy gives the highest priority to quoted prices with readily available independent data in active markets for identical assets or liabilities (Level 1) and the lowest priority to unobservable market inputs (Level 3). When various inputs for measurement fall within different levels of the fair value hierarchy, the lowest observable input that has a significant impact on fair value measurement is used. Our valuation techniques have not changed from those used at December 31, 2012, and ultimately management determines fair value. See our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 3, Fair Value Measurements, Page 121, for information on characteristics and valuation techniques used in determining fair value.

Fair Value Disclosures for Assets
The following tables illustrate the fair value hierarchy for those assets measured at fair value on a recurring basis at September 30, 2013, and December 31, 2012. We do not have any material liabilities carried at fair value. There were no transfers between Level 1 and Level 2.
(In millions)
 
Quoted prices in
active markets for
identical assets
(Level 1)
 
Significant other
observable inputs 
(Level 2)
 
Significant
unobservable
inputs
(Level 3)
 
Total
At September 30, 2013
 
 
 
 
Fixed maturities, available for sale:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

States, municipalities and political subdivisions
 
$

 
$
3,175

 
$

 
$
3,175

Convertibles and bonds with warrants attached
 

 
16

 

 
16

United States government
 
7

 

 

 
7

Government-sponsored enterprises
 

 
190

 

 
190

Foreign government
 

 
10

 

 
10

Commercial mortgage-backed securities
 

 
76

 

 
76

Corporate securities
 

 
5,561

 
3

 
5,564

Subtotal
 
7

 
9,028

 
3

 
9,038

Common equities, available for sale
 
3,873

 

 

 
3,873

Preferred equities, available for sale
 

 
109

 
2

 
111

Taxable fixed maturities separate accounts
 

 
689

 

 
689

Top Hat Savings Plan (included in Other assets)
 
12

 

 

 
12

Total
 
$
3,892

 
$
9,826

 
$
5

 
$
13,723

At December 31, 2012
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fixed maturities, available for sale:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

States, municipalities and political subdivisions
 
$

 
$
3,288

 
$
1

 
$
3,289

Convertibles and bonds with warrants attached
 

 
31

 

 
31

United States government
 
8

 

 

 
8

Government-sponsored enterprises
 

 
164

 

 
164

Foreign government
 

 
3

 

 
3

Commercial mortgage-backed securities
 

 
28

 

 
28

Corporate securities
 

 
5,567

 
3

 
5,570

Subtotal
 
8

 
9,081

 
4

 
9,093

Common equities, available for sale
 
3,238

 

 

 
3,238

Preferred equities, available for sale
 

 
134

 
1

 
135

Taxable fixed-maturities separate accounts
 

 
689

 

 
689

Top Hat Savings Plan (included in Other assets)
 
9

 

 

 
9

Total
 
$
3,255

 
$
9,904

 
$
5

 
$
13,164


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 12



 
Each financial instrument that was deemed to have significant unobservable inputs when determining valuation is identified in the following tables by security type with a summary of changes in fair value as of September 30, 2013. Total Level 3 assets continue to be less than 1 percent of financial assets measured at fair value in the condensed consolidated balance sheets. Assets presented in the table below were valued based primarily on broker/dealer quotes for which there is a lack of transparency as to inputs used to develop the valuations. The quantitative detail of these unobservable inputs is neither provided nor reasonably available to us.

The following tables provide the change in Level 3 assets for the three months ended September 30: 
 
 
 
(In millions)
 
Corporate fixed
maturities
 
States,
municipalities
and political
subdivisions
fixed maturities
 
Preferred  equities
 
Total
Beginning balance, June 30, 2013
 
$
3

 
$
1

 
$
2

 
$
6

Total gains or losses (realized/unrealized):
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Included in earnings
 

 

 

 

Included in other comprehensive income
 

 

 

 

Purchases
 

 

 

 

Sales
 

 
(1
)
 

 
(1
)
Transfers into Level 3
 

 

 

 

Transfers out of Level 3
 

 

 

 

Ending balance, September 30, 2013
 
$
3

 
$

 
$
2

 
$
5

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beginning balance, June 30, 2012
 
$
4

 
$
2

 
$
7

 
$
13

Total gains or losses (realized/unrealized):
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Included in earnings
 

 

 

 

Included in other comprehensive income
 

 

 

 

Purchases
 

 

 

 

Sales
 

 
(1
)
 

 
(1
)
Transfers into Level 3
 

 

 

 

Transfers out of Level 3
 

 

 

 

Ending balance, September 30, 2012
 
$
4

 
$
1

 
$
7

 
$
12
























Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 13



 The following tables provide the change in Level 3 assets for the nine months ended September 30:
 
 
(In millions)
 
Corporate fixed
maturities
 
States,
municipalities
and political
subdivisions
fixed maturities
 
Preferred
equities
 
Total
Beginning balance, December 31, 2012
 
$
3

 
$
1

 
$
1

 
$
5

Total gains or losses (realized/unrealized):
 
 
 
 

 
 

 
 

Included in earnings
 

 

 

 

Included in other comprehensive income
 

 

 

 

Purchases
 

 

 
1

 
1

Sales
 

 
(1
)
 

 
(1
)
Transfers into Level 3
 

 

 

 

Transfers out of Level 3
 

 

 

 

Ending balance, September 30, 2013
 
$
3

 
$

 
$
2

 
$
5

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beginning balance, December 31, 2011
 
$
18

 
$
3

 
$
4

 
$
25

Total gains or losses (realized/unrealized):
 
 
 
 

 
 

 
 
Included in earnings
 

 

 

 

Included in other comprehensive income
 
3

 

 
2

 
5

Purchases
 

 

 
1

 
1

Sales
 
(4
)
 
(2
)
 

 
(6
)
Transfers into Level 3
 
1

 

 

 
1

Transfers out of Level 3
 
(14
)
 

 

 
(14
)
Ending balance, September 30, 2012
 
$
4

 
$
1

 
$
7

 
$
12



Additional disclosures for the Level 3 category are not material.

Fair Value Disclosure for Assets and Liabilities Not Carried at Fair Value
 
The disclosures below are presented to provide timely information about the effects of current market conditions on financial instruments that are not reported at fair value in our condensed consolidated financial statements.
 
This table summarizes the book value and principal amounts of our long-term debt:
 
(In millions)
 
 
 
 
 
Book value
 
Principal amount
 
 
 
 
 
 
September 30,
 
December 31,
 
September 30,
 
December 31,
Interest rate
 
Year of issue
 
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
2013
 
2012
6.900
%
 
1998
 
Senior debentures, due 2028
 
$
28

 
$
28

 
$
28

 
$
28

6.920
%
 
2005
 
Senior debentures, due 2028
 
391

 
391

 
391

 
391

6.125
%
 
2004
 
Senior notes, due 2034
 
371

 
371

 
374

 
374

 

 
 
 
Total
 
$
790

 
$
790

 
$
793

 
$
793

 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 14



The following table shows fair values of our note payable and long-term debt subject to fair value disclosure requirements:
 
(In millions)
 
Quoted prices in
active markets for
identical assets
(Level 1)
 
Significant other
observable inputs 
(Level 2)
 
Significant
unobservable
inputs
(Level 3)
 
Total
At September 30, 2013
 
 
 
 
Note payable
 
$

 
$
104

 
$

 
$
104

6.900% senior debentures, due 2028
 

 
32

 

 
32

6.920% senior debentures, due 2028
 

 
470

 

 
470

6.125% senior notes, due 2034
 

 
398

 

 
398

Total
 
$

 
$
1,004

 
$

 
$
1,004

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
At December 31, 2012
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Note payable
 
$

 
$
104

 
$

 
$
104

6.900% senior debentures, due 2028
 

 
31

 

 
31

6.920% senior debentures, due 2028
 

 
479

 

 
479

6.125% senior notes, due 2034
 

 
431

 

 
431

Total
 
$

 
$
1,045

 
$

 
$
1,045

 
 
The following table shows the fair value of our life policy loans, included in other invested assets, subject to fair value disclosure requirements:
 
(In millions)
 
Quoted prices in
active markets for
identical assets
(Level 1)
 
Significant other
observable inputs 
(Level 2)
 
Significant
unobservable
inputs
(Level 3)
 
Total
At September 30, 2013
 
 
 
 
Life policy loans
 
$

 
$

 
$
44

 
$
44

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
At December 31, 2012
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Life policy loans
 
$

 
$

 
$
50

 
$
50

 
Outstanding principal and interest for these life policy loans was $35 million and $37 million at September 30, 2013, and December 31, 2012, respectively.
 
The following table shows fair values of our deferred annuities and structured settlements, included in life policy and investment contract reserves, subject to fair value disclosure requirements:
 
(In millions)
 
Quoted prices in
active markets for
identical assets
(Level 1)
 
Significant other
observable inputs 
(Level 2)
 
Significant
unobservable
inputs
(Level 3)
 
Total
At September 30, 2013
 
 
 
 
Deferred annuities
 
$

 
$

 
$
881

 
$
881

Structured settlements
 

 
218

 

 
218

Total
 
$

 
$
218

 
$
881

 
$
1,099

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
At December 31, 2012
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deferred annuities
 
$

 
$

 
$
898

 
$
898

Structured settlements
 

 
240

 

 
240

Total
 
$

 
$
240

 
$
898

 
$
1,138


Recorded reserves for the deferred annuities and structured settlements were $1.049 billion and $1.043 billion at September 30, 2013, and December 31, 2012, respectively.


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 15




NOTE 4 – PROPERTY CASUALTY LOSS AND LOSS EXPENSES
 
This table summarizes activity for our consolidated property casualty loss and loss expense reserves:
 
(In millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
2013
 
2012
Gross loss and loss expense reserves,
  beginning of period
 
$
4,219

 
$
4,337

 
$
4,169

 
$
4,280

Less reinsurance receivable
 
333

 
332

 
356

 
375

Net loss and loss expense reserves,
  beginning of period
 
3,886

 
4,005

 
3,813

 
3,905

Net incurred loss and loss expenses related to:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Current accident year
 
631

 
611

 
1,840

 
1,991

Prior accident years
 
(38
)
 
(86
)
 
(140
)
 
(287
)
Total incurred
 
593

 
525

 
1,700

 
1,704

Net paid loss and loss expenses related to:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Current accident year
 
329

 
364

 
699

 
778

Prior accident years
 
233

 
229

 
897

 
894

Total paid
 
562

 
593

 
1,596

 
1,672

Net loss and loss expense reserves,
  end of period
 
3,917

 
3,937

 
3,917

 
3,937

Plus reinsurance receivable
 
321

 
343

 
321

 
343

Gross loss and loss expense reserves,
  end of period
 
$
4,238

 
$
4,280

 
$
4,238

 
$
4,280

 
We use actuarial methods, models and judgment to estimate, as of a financial statement date, the property casualty loss and loss expense reserves required to pay for and settle all outstanding insured claims, including incurred but not reported (IBNR) claims, as of that date. The actuarial estimate is subject to review and adjustment by an
inter-departmental committee that includes actuarial management that is familiar with relevant company and industry business, claims and underwriting trends, as well as general economic and legal trends that could affect future loss and loss expense payments. The amount we will actually have to pay for claims can be highly uncertain. This uncertainty, together with the size of our reserves, makes the loss and loss expense reserves our most significant estimate. The reserve for loss and loss expenses in the condensed consolidated balance sheets also included $69 million at September 30, 2013, and $64 million at September 30, 2012, for certain life and health loss and loss expense reserves.

For the three months ended September 30, 2013, we experienced $38 million of favorable development on prior accident years, including $13 million of favorable development in commercial lines, $21 million of favorable development in personal lines and $4 million favorable development in excess and surplus lines. This included
$9 million from favorable development of catastrophe losses for the three months ended September 30, 2013, compared with $12 million of favorable development of catastrophe losses for the three months ended September 30, 2012.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2013, we experienced $140 million of favorable development on prior accident years, including $91 million of favorable development in commercial lines, $43 million of favorable development in personal lines and $6 million favorable development in excess and surplus lines. This included
$24 million from favorable development of catastrophe losses for the nine months ended September 30, 2013, compared with $39 million of favorable development of catastrophe losses for the nine months ended September 30, 2012.




Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 16



NOTE 5 – LIFE POLICY AND INVESTMENT CONTRACT RESERVES
 
We establish the reserves for traditional life insurance policies based on expected expenses, mortality, morbidity, withdrawal rates, timing of claim presentation and investment yields, including a provision for uncertainty. Once these assumptions are established, they generally are maintained throughout the lives of the contracts. We use both our own experience and industry experience, adjusted for historical trends, in arriving at our assumptions for expected mortality, morbidity and withdrawal rates as well as for expected expenses. We base our assumptions for expected investment income on our own experience adjusted for current economic conditions.
 
We establish reserves for the company’s universal life, deferred annuity and structured settlement policies equal to the cumulative account balances, which include premium deposits plus credited interest less charges and withdrawals. Some of our universal life policies contain no-lapse guarantee provisions. For these policies, we establish a reserve in addition to the account balance, based on expected no-lapse guarantee benefits and expected policy assessments.

This table summarizes our life policy and investment contract reserves:
 
(In millions)
 
September 30,
2013
 
December 31, 2012
Ordinary/traditional life
 
$
796

 
$
752

Universal life
 
512

 
483

Deferred annuities
 
860

 
850

Structured settlements
 
189

 
193

Other
 
16

 
17

Total life policy and investment contract reserves
 
$
2,373

 
$
2,295


 
NOTE 6 – DEFERRED ACQUISITION COSTS
 
Expenses directly related to successfully acquiring insurance policies – primarily commissions, premium taxes and underwriting costs – are deferred and amortized over the terms of the policies. We update our acquisition cost assumptions periodically to reflect actual experience, and we evaluate the costs for recoverability. The table below shows the deferred policy acquisition costs and asset reconciliation.
 
(In millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,

 
2013
 
2012
 
2013
 
2012
Deferred policy acquisition costs asset at beginning of period
 
$
546

 
$
484

 
$
470

 
$
477

Capitalized deferred policy acquisition costs
 
211

 
192

 
612

 
554

Amortized deferred policy acquisition costs
 
(190
)
 
(180
)
 
(552
)
 
(517
)
Amortized shadow deferred policy acquisition costs
 
9

 
(5
)
 
46

 
(23
)
Deferred policy acquisition costs asset at end of period
 
$
576

 
$
491

 
$
576

 
$
491


No premium deficiencies were recorded in the condensed consolidated statements of income, as the sum of the anticipated loss and loss adjustment expenses, policyholder dividends and unamortized deferred acquisition expenses did not exceed the related unearned premiums and anticipated investment income.
 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 17



NOTE 7 – ACCUMULATED OTHER COMPREHENSIVE INCOME
 
Accumulated other comprehensive income includes changes in unrealized gains and losses on available for sale investments and other invested assets, changes in pension obligations and changes in life deferred acquisition costs, life policy reserves and other as follows:    

(In millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
 
2012
 
 
Before tax
 
Income tax
 
Net
 
 
Before tax
 
Income tax
 
Net
Accumulated unrealized gains, net, on investments available for sale,
   beginning of period
 
$
1,987

 
$
686

 
$
1,301

 
 
$
1,664

 
$
573

 
$
1,091

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other comprehensive income before reclassification
 
82

 
29

 
53

 
 
262

 
93

 
169

Reclassification adjustment for realized investment gains, net,
  included in net income
 
(20
)
 
(7
)
 
(13
)
 
 
(9
)
 
(4
)
 
(5
)
Effect on other comprehensive income
 
62

 
22

 
40

 
 
253

 
89

 
164

Accumulated unrealized gains, net, on investments available for sale,
   end of period
 
$
2,049

 
$
708

 
$
1,341

 
 
$
1,917

 
$
662

 
$
1,255

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Accumulated unrealized losses, net, for pension obligations,
   beginning of period
 
$
(96
)
 
$
(33
)
 
$
(63
)
 
 
$
(85
)
 
$
(30
)
 
$
(55
)
Other comprehensive income before reclassification
 

 

 

 
 

 

 

Reclassification adjustment for amortization of actuarial loss
  and prior service cost, net, included in net income
 
2

 
1

 
1

 
 
2

 
1

 
1

Effect on other comprehensive income
 
2

 
1

 
1

 
 
2

 
1

 
1

Accumulated unrealized losses, net, for pension obligations,
  end of period
 
$
(94
)
 
$
(32
)
 
$
(62
)
 
 
$
(83
)
 
$
(29
)
 
$
(54
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Accumulated unrealized losses, net, on life deferred acquisition costs,
   life policy reserves and other, beginning of period
 
$
(26
)
 
$
(9
)
 
$
(17
)
 
 
$
(39
)
 
$
(13
)
 
$
(26
)
Other comprehensive income before reclassification
 
9

 
2

 
7

 
 
(5
)
 
(2
)
 
(3
)
Reclassification adjustment for life deferred acquisition costs,
   life policy reserves and other, net, included in net income
 
(2
)
 

 
(2
)
 
 
(1
)
 

 
(1
)
Effect on other comprehensive income
 
7

 
2

 
5

 
 
(6
)
 
(2
)
 
(4
)
Accumulated unrealized losses, net, on life deferred acquisition costs,
   life policy reserves and other, end of period
 
$
(19
)
 
$
(7
)
 
$
(12
)
 
 
$
(45
)
 
$
(15
)
 
$
(30
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Accumulated other comprehensive income, beginning of period
 
$
1,865

 
$
644

 
$
1,221

 
 
$
1,540

 
$
530

 
$
1,010

Change in unrealized gains, net, on investments available for sale
 
62

 
22

 
40

 
 
253

 
89

 
164

Change in pension obligations
 
2

 
1

 
1

 
 
2

 
1

 
1

Change in life deferred acquisition costs, life policy reserves
  and other
 
7

 
2

 
5

 
 
(6
)
 
(2
)
 
(4
)
Effect on other comprehensive income
 
71

 
25

 
46

 
 
249

 
88

 
161

Accumulated other comprehensive income, end of period
 
$
1,936

 
$
669

 
$
1,267

 
 
$
1,789

 
$
618

 
$
1,171


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 18



(In millions)
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
 
2012
 
 
Before tax
 
Income tax
 
Net
 
 
Before tax
 
Income tax
 
Net
Accumulated unrealized gains, net, on investments available for sale,
   beginning of period
 
$
1,875

 
$
647

 
$
1,228

 
 
$
1,489

 
$
512

 
$
977

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other comprehensive income before reclassification
 
246

 
85

 
161

 
 
456

 
160

 
296

Reclassification adjustment for realized investment gains, net,
  included in net income
 
(72
)
 
(24
)
 
(48
)
 
 
(28
)
 
(10
)
 
(18
)
Effect on other comprehensive income
 
174

 
61

 
113

 
 
428

 
150

 
278

Accumulated unrealized gains, net, on investments available for sale,
   end of period
 
$
2,049

 
$
708

 
$
1,341

 
 
$
1,917

 
$
662

 
$
1,255

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Accumulated unrealized losses, net, for pension obligations,
   beginning of period
 
$
(101
)
 
$
(35
)
 
$
(66
)
 
 
$
(88
)
 
$
(31
)
 
$
(57
)
Effect on other comprehensive income
 
7

 
3

 
4

 
 
5

 
2

 
3

Accumulated unrealized losses, net, for pension obligations,
  end of period
 
$
(94
)
 
$
(32
)
 
$
(62
)
 
 
$
(83
)
 
$
(29
)
 
$
(54
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Accumulated unrealized losses, net, on life deferred acquisition costs,
   life policy reserves and other, beginning of period
 
$
(50
)
 
$
(17
)
 
$
(33
)
 
 
$
(29
)
 
$
(10
)
 
$
(19
)
Other comprehensive income before reclassification
 
36

 
12

 
24

 
 
(15
)
 
(5
)
 
(10
)
Reclassification adjustment for life deferred acquisition costs,
   life policy reserves and other, net, included in net income
 
(5
)
 
(2
)
 
(3
)
 
 
(1
)
 

 
(1
)
Effect on other comprehensive income
 
31

 
10

 
21

 
 
(16
)
 
(5
)
 
(11
)
Accumulated unrealized losses, net, on life deferred acquisition costs,
   life policy reserves and other, end of period
 
$
(19
)
 
$
(7
)
 
$
(12
)
 
 
$
(45
)
 
$
(15
)
 
$
(30
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Accumulated other comprehensive income, beginning of period
 
$
1,724

 
$
595

 
$
1,129

 
 
$
1,372

 
$
471

 
$
901

Change in unrealized gains, net, on investments available for sale
 
174

 
61

 
113

 
 
428

 
150

 
278

Change in pension obligations
 
7

 
3

 
4

 
 
5

 
2

 
3

Change in life deferred acquisition costs, life policy reserves
  and other
 
31

 
10

 
21

 
 
(16
)
 
(5
)
 
(11
)
Effect on other comprehensive income
 
212

 
74

 
138

 
 
417

 
147

 
270

Accumulated other comprehensive income, end of period
 
$
1,936

 
$
669

 
$
1,267

 
 
$
1,789

 
$
618

 
$
1,171


The reclassification adjustment for realized gains on investments available for sale are recorded in the total realized investment gains, net, line item of the condensed consolidated statements of income. The reclassification adjustment for amortization of actuarial loss and prior service cost, net, are recorded in the insurance losses and policyholder benefits, underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses and the other operating expenses line items of the condensed consolidated statements of income.


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 19



NOTE 8 – REINSURANCE
 
Reinsurance mitigates the risk of highly uncertain exposures and limits the maximum net loss that can arise from large risks or risks concentrated in areas of exposure. Management's decisions about the appropriate level of risk retention are affected by various factors, including changes in our underwriting practices, capacity to retain risks and reinsurance market conditions.

Primary components of our property casualty reinsurance program include a property per risk treaty, property excess treaty, casualty per occurrence treaty, casualty excess treaty, property catastrophe treaty and catastrophe bonds.

Our condensed consolidated statements of income include earned consolidated property casualty insurance premiums on assumed and ceded business: 
(In millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
2013
 
2012
Direct earned premiums
 
$
1,002

 
$
898

 
$
2,895

 
$
2,605

Assumed earned premiums
 
3

 
1

 
8

 
7

Ceded earned premiums
 
(51
)
 
(48
)
 
(150
)
 
(137
)
Net earned premiums
 
$
954

 
$
851

 
$
2,753

 
$
2,475

 
Our condensed consolidated statements of income include incurred consolidated property casualty insurance loss and loss expenses on assumed and ceded business:
(In millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
2013
 
2012
Direct incurred loss and loss expenses
 
$
597

 
$
562

 
$
1,725

 
$
1,745

Assumed incurred loss and loss expenses
 
1

 
(3
)
 
8

 
3

Ceded incurred loss and loss expenses
 
(5
)
 
(34
)
 
(33
)
 
(44
)
Net incurred loss and loss expenses
 
$
593

 
$
525

 
$
1,700

 
$
1,704

 
Our life insurance company purchases reinsurance for protection of a portion of the risk that is written. Primary components of our life reinsurance program include individual mortality coverage and aggregate catastrophe and accidental death coverage in excess of certain deductibles.

Our condensed consolidated statements of income include earned life insurance premiums on ceded business: 
(In millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
2013
 
2012
Direct earned premiums
 
$
52

 
$
52

 
$
166

 
$
170

Assumed earned premiums
 

 

 

 

Ceded earned premiums
 
(14
)
 
(14
)
 
(42
)
 
(40
)
Net earned premiums
 
$
38

 
$
38

 
$
124

 
$
130

 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 20



Our condensed consolidated statements of income include life insurance policyholders’ benefits incurred on ceded business: 
(In millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
2013
 
2012
Direct policyholders' benefits incurred
 
$
64

 
$
62

 
$
190

 
$
172

Assumed policyholders' benefits incurred
 

 

 

 

Ceded policyholders' benefits incurred
 
(15
)
 
(16
)
 
(49
)
 
(36
)
Net policyholders' benefits incurred
 
$
49

 
$
46

 
$
141

 
$
136


The ceded benefits incurred can vary depending on the type of life insurance policy held and the year the policy was sold.

NOTE 9 – INCOME TAXES
 
As of September 30, 2013, and December 31, 2012, we had no liability for unrecognized tax benefits. Details about our liability for unrecognized tax benefits are found in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 11, Income Taxes, Page 129.
 
During the third quarter of 2013, we were advised that the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation had completed its review of tax years 2009 and 2010 and agreed with the Internal Revenue Service examination report, which resulted in no material changes to the returns as filed.

On September 13, 2013, the Internal Revenue Service released final tangible property regulations under Sections 162(a) and 263(a) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 (Code), regarding the deduction and capitalization of expenditures related to tangible property. The final regulations replace temporary regulations that were issued in December 2011.  Also released were proposed regulations under Section 168 of the Code regarding dispositions of tangible property.  These regulations generally apply to taxable years beginning on or after January 1, 2014.  Although the final regulations will affect all taxpayers that acquire, produce, or improve tangible property, we do not expect them to have a material impact on our consolidated financial statements.

The differences between the 35 percent statutory income tax rate and our effective income tax rate were as follows:
 
(Dollars in millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
2013
 
2012
Tax at statutory rate
 
$
64

 
35.0
 %
 
$
53

 
35.0
 %
 
$
191

 
35.0
 %
 
$
103

 
35.0
 %
  Increase (decrease) resulting from:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Tax-exempt income from municipal bonds
 
(8
)
 
(4.4
)
 
(8
)
 
(5.3
)
 
(24
)
 
(4.4
)
 
(25
)
 
(8.5
)
Dividend received exclusion
 
(6
)
 
(3.3
)
 
(6
)
 
(4.0
)
 
(18
)
 
(3.3
)
 
(17
)
 
(5.8
)
Other
 
1

 
0.7

 
2

 
1.3

 
3

 
0.5

 
3

 
1.1

Provision for income taxes
 
$
51

 
28.0
 %
 
$
41

 
27.0
 %
 
$
152

 
27.8
 %
 
$
64

 
21.8
 %
 
The change in our effective tax rate was primarily due to changes in pretax income from underwriting results and realized investment gains and losses, compared with unchanged levels of permanent book-tax differences.

NOTE 10 – NET INCOME PER COMMON SHARE
 
Basic earnings per share are computed based on the weighted average number of shares outstanding. Diluted earnings per share are computed based on the weighted average number of common and dilutive potential common shares outstanding using the treasury stock method.
 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 21



The table shows calculations for basic and diluted earnings per share:

(Dollars in millions except share data in thousands)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
2013
 
2012
 
2013
 
2012
Numerator:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Net income—basic and diluted
 
$
131

 
$
111

 
$
395

 
$
229

Denominator:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Weighted-average common shares outstanding
 
163,710

 
162,555

 
163,454

 
162,419

Effect of stock-based awards:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Stock options
 
1,184

 
563

 
1,131

 
441

Nonvested shares
 
707

 
739

 
719

 
647

Adjusted weighted-average shares
 
165,601

 
163,857

 
165,304

 
163,507

Earnings per share:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Basic
 
$
0.80

 
$
0.69

 
$
2.42

 
$
1.41

Diluted
 
0.79

 
0.68

 
2.39

 
1.40

Number of anti-dilutive stock-based awards
 
335

 
5,045

 
390

 
6,000


The current sources of dilution of our common shares are certain equity-based awards as discussed in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 17, Stock-Based Associate Compensation Plans, Page 135. The above table shows the number of anti-dilutive stock-based awards for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2013 and 2012. We did not include these stock-based awards in the computation of net income per common share (diluted) because their exercise would have anti-dilutive effects.

NOTE 11 – EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT BENEFITS
 
The following summarizes the components of net periodic costs for our qualified and supplemental pension plans:

(In millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
2013
 
2012
Service cost
 
$
4

 
$
3

 
$
10

 
$
9

Interest cost
 
4

 
4

 
10

 
11

Expected return on plan assets
 
(5
)
 
(4
)
 
(13
)
 
(12
)
Amortization of actuarial loss and prior service
   cost
 
2

 
2

 
7

 
5

Net periodic benefit cost
 
$
5

 
$
5

 
$
14

 
$
13


See our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 13, Employee Retirement Benefits, Page 130, for information on our retirement benefits. We made matching contributions of $2 million to our 401(k) and Top Hat savings plans during both the third quarter of 2013 and 2012 and contributions of $7 million for both the first nine months of 2013 and 2012.

We contributed $15 million to our qualified pension plan during the first quarter of 2013. We do not anticipate further contributions to our qualified pension plan during the remainder of 2013.


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 22



NOTE 12 – COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENT LIABILITIES
 
In the ordinary course of conducting business, the company and its subsidiaries are named as defendants in various legal proceedings. Most of these proceedings are claims litigation involving the company's insurance subsidiaries in which the company is either defending or providing indemnity for third-party claims brought against insureds or litigating first-party coverage claims. The company accounts for such activity through the establishment of unpaid loss and loss adjustment expense reserves. We believe that the ultimate liability, if any, with respect to such ordinary-course claims litigation, after consideration of provisions made for potential losses and costs of defense, is immaterial to our consolidated financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.
 
The company and its subsidiaries also are occasionally involved in other legal and regulatory proceedings, some of which assert claims for substantial amounts. These actions include, among others, putative class actions seeking certification of a state or national class. Such proceedings have alleged, for example, breach of an alleged duty to search national data bases to ascertain unreported deaths of insureds under life insurance policies. The company's insurance subsidiaries also are occasionally parties to individual actions in which extra-contractual damages, punitive damages or penalties are sought, such as claims alleging bad faith handling of insurance claims or writing unauthorized coverage or claims alleging discrimination by former associates.
 
On a quarterly basis, we review these outstanding matters. Under current accounting guidance, we establish accruals when it is probable that a loss has been incurred and we can reasonably estimate its potential exposure. The company accounts for such probable and estimable losses, if any, through the establishment of legal expense reserves. Based on our quarterly review, we believe that our accruals for probable and estimable losses are reasonable and that the amounts accrued do not have a material effect on our consolidated financial condition or results of operations. However, if any one or more of these matters results in a judgment against us or settlement for an amount that is significantly greater than the amount accrued, the resulting liability could have a material effect on the company's consolidated results of operations or cash flows. Based on our most recent review, our estimate for any other matters for which the risk of loss is not probable, but more than remote, is less than $1 million.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 23




 

NOTE 13 – SEGMENT INFORMATION
 
We operate primarily in two industries, property casualty insurance and life insurance. We regularly review our reporting segments to make decisions about allocating resources and assessing performance:
 
Commercial lines property casualty insurance
Personal lines property casualty insurance
Excess and surplus lines property casualty insurance
Life insurance
Investments

We report as Other the noninvestment operations of the parent company and its noninsurer subsidiary, CFC Investment Company. See our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 18, Segment Information, Page 137, for a description of revenue, income or loss before income taxes and identifiable assets for each of the five segments.


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 24



Segment information is summarized in the following table: 
(In millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
2013
 
2012
Revenues:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Commercial lines insurance
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Commercial casualty
 
$
221

 
$
197

 
$
636

 
$
569

Commercial property
 
161

 
138

 
460

 
403

Commercial auto
 
124

 
108

 
355

 
315

Workers' compensation
 
95

 
89

 
270

 
255

Specialty packages
 
38

 
37

 
114

 
112

Surety and executive risk
 
30

 
28

 
89

 
82

Machinery and equipment
 
11

 
10

 
32

 
29

Commercial lines insurance premiums
 
680

 
607

 
1,956

 
1,765

Fee revenue
 
1

 

 
2

 
2

Total commercial lines insurance
 
681

 
607

 
1,958

 
1,767

Personal lines insurance
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Personal auto
 
112

 
101

 
328

 
299

Homeowner
 
103

 
90

 
298

 
261

Other personal lines
 
29

 
28

 
86

 
82

Personal lines insurance premiums
 
244

 
219

 
712

 
642

Fee revenue
 

 
1

 
1

 
2

       Total personal lines insurance
 
244

 
220

 
713

 
644

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Excess and surplus lines insurance
 
30

 
25

 
85

 
68

Life insurance
 
38

 
38

 
124

 
130

     Separate account investment management fees
 
1

 
1

 
3

 
1

             Total life insurance
 
39

 
39

 
127

 
131

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Investment operations
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
     Investment income, net of expenses
 
133

 
132

 
392

 
395

     Realized investment gains, net
 
22

 
10

 
77

 
29

             Total investment revenue
 
155

 
142

 
469

 
424

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
Other
 
3

 
2

 
7

 
7

Total revenues
 
$
1,152

 
$
1,035

 
$
3,359

 
$
3,041

Income (loss) before income taxes:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Insurance underwriting results
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Commercial lines insurance
 
$
43

 
$
60

 
$
135

 
$
74

Personal lines insurance
 
14

 
(12
)
 
33

 
(89
)
Excess and surplus lines insurance
 
4

 
(3
)
 
5

 
(8
)
Life insurance
 

 

 
10

 
(2
)
Investment operations
 
134

 
121

 
409

 
362

Other
 
(13
)
 
(14
)
 
(45
)
 
(44
)
Total
 
$
182

 
$
152

 
$
547

 
$
293

Identifiable assets:
 
September 30,
2013
 
December 31, 2012
Property casualty insurance
 
$
2,479

 
$
2,395

Life insurance
 
1,263

 
1,201

Investment operations
 
13,137

 
12,599

Other
 
460

 
353

Total
 
$
17,339

 
$
16,548


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 25




Item 2.    Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and
Results of Operations
 
The following discussion highlights significant factors influencing the consolidated results of operations and financial position of Cincinnati Financial Corporation. It should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements and related notes included in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K. Unless otherwise noted, the industry data is prepared by A.M. Best Co., a leading insurance industry statistical, analytical and financial strength rating organization. Information from A.M. Best is presented on a statutory basis. When we provide our results on a comparable statutory basis, we label it as such; all other company data is presented in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP).
 
We present per share data on a diluted basis unless otherwise noted, adjusting those amounts for all stock splits and dividends. Dollar amounts are rounded to millions; calculations of percent changes are based on dollar amounts rounded to the nearest million. Certain percentage changes are identified as not meaningful (nm).
 
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT
 
This is our “Safe Harbor” statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Our business is subject to certain risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements in this report. Some of those risks and uncertainties are discussed in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1A, Risk Factors, Page 26.
 
Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to:
 
Unusually high levels of catastrophe losses due to risk concentrations, changes in weather patterns, environmental events, terrorism incidents or other causes
Increased frequency and/or severity of claims
Inadequate estimates or assumptions used for critical accounting estimates
Recession or other economic conditions resulting in lower demand for insurance products or increased payment delinquencies
Declines in overall stock market values negatively affecting the company’s equity portfolio and book value
Events resulting in capital market or credit market uncertainty, followed by prolonged periods of economic instability or recession, that lead to:
Significant or prolonged decline in the value of a particular security or group of securities and impairment of the asset(s)
Significant decline in investment income due to reduced or eliminated dividend payouts from a particular security or group of securities
Significant rise in losses from surety and director and officer policies written for financial institutions or other insured entities
Prolonged low interest rate environment or other factors that limit the company’s ability to generate growth in investment income or interest rate fluctuations that result in declining values of fixed-maturity investments, including declines in accounts in which we hold bank-owned life insurance contract assets
Increased competition that could result in a significant reduction in the company’s premium volume
Delays or performance inadequacies from ongoing development and implementation of underwriting and pricing methods or technology projects and enhancements expected to increase our pricing accuracy, underwriting profit and competitiveness
Changing consumer insurance-buying habits and consolidation of independent insurance agencies that could alter our competitive advantages
Inability to obtain adequate reinsurance on acceptable terms, amount of reinsurance purchased, financial strength of reinsurers and the potential for nonpayment or delay in payment by reinsurers
Difficulties with technology or data security breaches, including cyber attacks, that could negatively affect our ability to conduct business and our relationships with agents, policyholders and others

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 26



Inability to defer policy acquisition costs for any business segment if pricing and loss trends would lead management to conclude that segment could not achieve sustainable profitability
Events or conditions that could weaken or harm the company’s relationships with its independent agencies and hamper opportunities to add new agencies, resulting in limitations on the company’s opportunities for growth, such as:
Downgrades of the company’s financial strength ratings
Concerns that doing business with the company is too difficult
Perceptions that the company’s level of service, particularly claims service, is no longer a distinguishing characteristic in the marketplace
Actions of insurance departments, state attorneys general or other regulatory agencies, including a change to a federal system of regulation from a state-based system, that:
Impose new obligations on us that increase our expenses or change the assumptions underlying our critical accounting estimates
Place the insurance industry under greater regulatory scrutiny or result in new statutes, rules and regulations
Restrict our ability to exit or reduce writings of unprofitable coverages or lines of business
Add assessments for guaranty funds, other insurance related assessments or mandatory reinsurance arrangements; or that impair our ability to recover such assessments through future surcharges or other rate changes
Increase our provision for federal income taxes due to changes in tax law
Increase our other expenses
Limit our ability to set fair, adequate and reasonable rates
Place us at a disadvantage in the marketplace
Restrict our ability to execute our business model, including the way we compensate agents
Adverse outcomes from litigation or administrative proceedings
Events or actions, including unauthorized intentional circumvention of controls, that reduce the company’s future ability to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002
Unforeseen departure of certain executive officers or other key employees due to retirement, health or other causes that could interrupt progress toward important strategic goals or diminish the effectiveness of certain longstanding relationships with insurance agents and others
Events, such as an epidemic, natural catastrophe or terrorism, that could hamper our ability to assemble our workforce at our headquarters location

Further, the company’s insurance businesses are subject to the effects of changing social, economic and regulatory environments. Public and regulatory initiatives have included efforts to adversely influence and restrict premium rates, restrict the ability to cancel policies, impose underwriting standards and expand overall regulation. The company also is subject to public and regulatory initiatives that can affect the market value for its common stock, such as measures affecting corporate financial reporting and governance. The ultimate changes and eventual effects, if any, of these initiatives are uncertain.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 27





CORPORATE FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
 
Statements of Income and Comprehensive Income and Per Share Data
 
(Dollars in millions except share data in thousands)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
Statement of income and comprehensive income data:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Earned premiums
 
$
992

 
$
889

 
12

 
$
2,877

 
$
2,605

 
10

Investment income, net of expenses (pretax)
 
133

 
132

 
1

 
392

 
395

 
(1
)
Realized investment gains and losses, net
  (pretax)
 
22

 
10

 
120

 
77

 
29

 
166

Total revenues
 
1,152

 
1,035

 
11

 
3,359

 
3,041

 
10

Net income
 
131

 
111

 
18

 
395

 
229

 
72

Comprehensive income
 
177

 
272

 
(35
)
 
533

 
499

 
7

Per share data:
 
 
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Net income - diluted
 
$
0.79

 
$
0.68

 
16

 
$
2.39

 
$
1.40

 
71

Cash dividends declared
 
0.42

 
0.4075

 
3

 
1.235

 
1.213

 
2

Weighted average shares outstanding
 
165,601

 
163,857

 
1

 
165,304

 
163,507

 
1


Revenues rose for the third quarter and the first nine months of 2013 compared with the same quarter and nine-month period of 2012, primarily due to growth in earned premiums. Premium and investment revenue trends are discussed further in the respective sections of Results of Operations.
 
Realized investment gains and losses are recognized on the sales of investments or as otherwise required by GAAP. We have substantial discretion in the timing of investment sales, and that timing generally is independent of the insurance underwriting process. GAAP also requires us to recognize in net income the gains or losses from certain changes in fair values of securities even though we continue to hold the securities.
 
Net income for the third quarter of 2013 compared with the third quarter of 2012 rose $20 million, primarily due to stronger property casualty underwriting income that rose $10 million after taxes. Lower catastrophe losses, mostly weather related, improved after-tax property casualty underwriting results by $9 million compared with the third quarter of 2012. After-tax investment income in our investment segment results for the third quarter of 2013 rose $1 million compared with the third quarter of 2012. Third-quarter 2013 after-tax net realized investment gains and losses were $9 million higher than the same quarter a year ago.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2013, net income increased $166 million compared with the same period of 2012, also primarily due to higher property casualty underwriting results that rose $127 million after taxes, including $106 million from lower catastrophe losses. After-tax investment income decreased by $2 million while after-tax net realized investment gains and losses were $32 million higher. Life insurance segment results on a pretax basis were $12 million higher.

Performance by segment is discussed below in Results of Operations. As discussed in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Factors Influencing Our Future Performance, Page 42, there are several reasons that our performance during 2013 may be below our long-term targets. In that annual report, as part of Results of Operations, we also discussed the full-year 2013 outlook for each reporting segment.
 
The board of directors is committed to rewarding shareholders directly through cash dividends and through share repurchase authorizations. Through 2012, the company had increased the indicated annual cash dividend rate for 52 consecutive years, a record we believe was matched by only nine other publicly traded companies. In August 2013, the board of directors increased the fourth-quarter dividend to 42 cents per share, and the payment of that dividend in mid-October resulted in our 53rd consecutive year of increasing cash dividends. During the first nine months of 2013, cash dividends declared by the company increased approximately 2 percent compared with the same period of 2012. Our board regularly evaluates relevant factors in decisions related to dividends and share

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 28



repurchases. The 2013 dividend increase signaled management’s and the board’s confidence in our strong capital, liquidity and financial flexibility, in addition to improved earnings performance.

Balance Sheet Data and Performance Measures

(Dollars in millions except share data)
 
At September 30,
 
At December 31,
 
 
2013
 
2012
Balance sheet data:
 
 

 
 

Invested assets
 
$
13,090

 
$
12,534

Total assets
 
17,339

 
16,548

Short-term debt
 
104

 
104

Long-term debt
 
790

 
790

Shareholders' equity
 
5,816

 
5,453

Book value per share
 
35.51

 
33.48

Debt-to-total-capital ratio
 
13.3
%
 
14.1
%

Total assets at September 30, 2013, increased 5 percent compared with year-end 2012, primarily due to growth in invested assets that was driven by additional purchases of securities. Shareholders’ equity rose 7 percent, and book value per share was up 6 percent during the first nine months of 2013. Our debt-to-total-capital ratio (capital is the sum of debt plus shareholders’ equity) decreased compared with year-end 2012. The value creation ratio, a non-GAAP measure defined below, improved for the first nine months of 2013 compared with 2012, reflecting higher net income and unrealized investment gains. The $2.03 increase in book value per share during the first nine months of 2013 contributed 6.1 percentage points to the value creation ratio, while dividends declared at $1.235 per share contributed 3.7 points. Value creation ratio trends in total and by major components, along with a reconciliation of the non-GAAP measure to comparable GAAP measures, are shown in the tables below.


 
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
2013
 
2012
Value creation ratio major components:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Net income before realized gains
 
2.0
 %
 
2.1
%
 
6.3
 %
 
4.2
 %
Change in realized and unrealized gains,
   fixed-maturity securities
 
(0.2
)
 
1.5

 
(3.9
)
 
2.8

Change in realized and unrealized gains,
   equity securities
 
1.2

 
1.8

 
6.8

 
3.0

Other
 
0.2

 
0.0

 
0.6

 
(0.4
)
     Value creation ratio
 
3.2
 %
 
5.4
%
 
9.8
 %
 
9.6
 %


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 29




(Dollars are per outstanding share)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
2013
 
2012
Book value change per share:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
End of period book value
 
$
35.51

 
$
32.95

 
$
35.51

 
$
32.95

Less beginning of period book value
 
34.83

 
31.66

 
33.48

 
31.03

Change in book value
 
$
0.68

 
$
1.29

 
$
2.03

 
$
1.92

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Change in book value:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Net income before realized gains
 
$
0.71

 
$
0.65

 
$
2.10

 
$
1.29

Change in realized and unrealized gains,
   fixed-maturity securities
 
(0.09
)
 
0.48

 
(1.29
)
 
0.88

Change in realized and unrealized gains,
   equity securities
 
0.42

 
0.56

 
2.27

 
0.94

Dividend declared to shareholders
 
(0.42
)
 
(0.41
)
 
(1.24
)
 
(1.21
)
Other
 
0.06

 
0.01

 
0.19

 
0.02

Total change in book value
 
$
0.68

 
$
1.29

 
$
2.03

 
$
1.92



 

(Dollars are per outstanding share)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
2013
 
2012
Book value change per share:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Book value as originally reported
 December 31, 2011
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
31.16

Cumulative effect of a change in accounting
 for deferred policy acquisition costs, net of tax
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(0.13
)
Book value as adjusted December 31, 2011
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
31.03

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Value creation ratio:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

End of period book value
 
$
35.51

 
$
32.95

 
$
35.51

 
$
32.95

Less beginning of period book value - as
    originally reported
 
34.83

 
31.66

 
33.48

 
31.16

Change in book value
 
0.68

 
1.29

 
2.03

 
1.79

Dividend declared to shareholders
 
0.42

 
0.41

 
1.24

 
1.21

Total contribution to value creation ratio
 
$
1.10

 
$
1.70

 
$
3.27

 
$
3.00

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Contribution to value creation ratio from
   change in book value*
 
2.0
%
 
4.1
%
 
6.1
%
 
5.7
%
Contribution to value creation ratio from
   dividends declared to shareholders**
 
1.2

 
1.3

 
3.7

 
3.9

Value creation ratio
 
3.2
%
 
5.4
%
 
9.8
%
 
9.6
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
*Change in book value divided by the beginning of period book value as originally reported
 
 
 
 
**Dividend declared to shareholders divided by beginning of period book value as originally reported
 
 
 
 

The cumulative effect of a change in accounting for deferred policy acquisition costs, net of tax, in the above book value reconciliation is the result of our adoption of Accounting Standards Update (ASU) 2010-26, Accounting for Costs Associated with Acquiring or Renewing Insurance Contracts. We retrospectively adopted this ASU on January 1, 2012. See our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 1, Summary of Significant Accounting Policies, Page 112, for information on our adopted accounting standards.


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 30



PROGRESS TOWARD LONG-TERM VALUE CREATION
 
Operating through The Cincinnati Insurance Company, Cincinnati Financial Corporation is one of the 25 largest property casualty insurers in the nation, based on 2012 net written premium volume for approximately 2,000 U.S. stock and mutual insurer groups. We market our insurance products through a select group of independent insurance agencies in 39 states as discussed in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1, Our Business and Our Strategy, Page 3.

We maintain a long-term perspective that guides us in addressing immediate challenges or opportunities while focusing on the major decisions that best position our company for success through all market cycles. We believe that this forward-looking view has consistently benefited our policyholders, agents, shareholders and associates.

To measure our long-term progress in creating shareholder value, we have defined a value creation metric that we believe captures the contribution of our insurance operations, the success of our investment strategy and the importance we place on paying cash dividends to shareholders. This measure, our value creation ratio or VCR, is made up of two primary components: (1) our rate of growth in book value per share plus (2) the ratio of dividends declared per share to beginning book value per share. As discussed in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Executive Summary, Page 38, for the period 2013 through 2017, an annual value creation ratio averaging 10 percent to 13 percent is our primary performance target. Management believes this non-GAAP measure is a meaningful indicator of our long-term progress in creating shareholder value and is a useful supplement to GAAP information.

Performance Drivers
 
When looking at our long-term objectives, we see three performance drivers:

Premium growth - We believe our agency relationships and initiatives can lead to a property casualty written premium growth rate over any five-year period that exceeds the industry average. For the first nine months of 2013, our total property casualty net written premiums’ year-over-year growth was 13 percent, comparing favorably with the industry’s 5 percent growth rate reported by A.M. Best for the first six months of 2013. Our premium growth initiatives are discussed below in Highlights of Our Strategies and Supporting Initiatives.

Combined ratio - We believe our underwriting philosophy and initiatives can generate a GAAP combined ratio over any five-year period that is consistently within the range of 95 percent to 100 percent. For the first nine months of 2013, our GAAP combined ratio was 93.8 percent and our statutory combined ratio was 92.0 percent, both including 6.0 percentage points of current accident year catastrophe losses partially offset by 5.1 percentage points of favorable loss reserve development on prior accident years. Our nine-month statutory combined ratio was lower than the 96.7 percent reported for the industry by A.M. Best for the first six months of 2013.

Investment contribution - We believe our investment philosophy and initiatives can drive investment income growth and lead to a total return on our equity investment portfolio over a five-year period that exceeds the five-year return of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. For the first nine months of 2013, pretax investment income was $392 million, down 1 percent compared with the same period in 2012. We believe our investment portfolio mix provides an appropriate balance of income stability and growth with capital appreciation potential.


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 31



Highlights of Our Strategy and Supporting Initiatives
Management has worked to identify a strategy that can lead to long-term success, with concurrence by the board of directors. Our strategy is intended to position us to compete successfully in the markets we have targeted while appropriately managing risk. Further description of our long-term, proven strategy can be found in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1, Our Business and Our Strategy, Page 3. We believe successful implementation of initiatives that support our strategy, summarized below, will help us better serve our agent customers and reduce variability in our financial results while we also grow earnings and book value over the long term, successfully navigating challenging economic, market or industry pricing cycles.

Improve insurance profitability - Implementation of these initiatives is intended to enhance underwriting expertise and knowledge, thereby increasing our ability to manage our business while also gaining efficiency. Additional information and more focused action on underperforming product lines, along with our expanding pricing capabilities through the use of technology and analytics, can lead to better profit margins. Improved internal processes with additional performance metrics can help us be more efficient and effective. These initiatives also support the ability of the independent agencies that represent us to grow profitably by allowing them to serve clients faster and to more efficiently manage agency expenses.

Drive premium growth - Implementation of these initiatives is intended to further penetrate each market we serve through our independent agency network. Strategies aimed at specific market opportunities, along with service enhancements, can help our agents grow and increase our share of their business. Diversified growth also may reduce variability of losses from weather-related catastrophes.

Below we discuss key initiatives supporting these strategies, along with an assessment of our progress.
 
Improve Insurance Profitability
 
The main initiatives to improve our insurance profitability include:

Enhance underwriting expertise and knowledge - We continue efforts to increase our use of information and to develop our skills for improved underwriting performance, such as expanding our pricing capabilities by using predictive analytics. Expanded capabilities include streamlining and optimizing data to improve accuracy, timeliness and ease of use. We also continue to develop additional business data and tools to support more accurate underwriting, including more granular pricing, by further developing our data warehouse used in our property casualty and life insurance operations.

Work continues on initiatives to more profitably underwrite property coverages, including more staff specialization, increased insured property inspections to provide enhanced underwriting knowledge and greater use of deductibles or other policy terms and conditions as policies renew. Progress on initiatives during the first nine months of 2013 included conducting approximately 60,000 inspections or applying loss control activities on a significant number of commercial properties and homes across several states, allowing us to increase our emphasis on roof conditions or other policy underwriting attributes. As expected, the inspections are resulting in underwriting or pricing actions – ranging from minor to significant – for a substantial portion of the inspected properties. During 2013 through 2015, we plan to complete inspections for approximately 300,000 properties, including both homes and businesses. We are also increasing our use of higher minimum loss deductible amounts for homeowner policies and per-building deductibles for commercial risks, along with more use of wind and hail deductibles in areas subject to severe convective storm activity. We are expanding use of actual cash value coverage for older roofs and cosmetic damage exclusions for certain roof types. We expect these actions, along with others such as the use of hail-mapping technology that identifies possible roof damage from prior hailstorms, to improve underwriting profitability over time for our property-related lines of business.

Similar initiatives are underway to more profitably underwrite our commercial auto line of business. A multi-department, multi-disciplinary taskforce has been working to determine ways to improve profitability, similar to the approach we used to improve workers’ compensation results. Initiatives in process during the first

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 32



nine months of 2013 included continuing education for underwriters and field marketing representatives and more focus on factors to improve pricing precision. These factors include classification of insured commercial autos, information about their cost-new, and improvements in the collection and use of commercial vehicle identification numbers. Our increased focus on our commercial auto line of business also contributed to it experiencing larger average price increases for the first nine months of 2013, compared with estimated average price increases for our commercial lines segment in total.
 
We continue to refine our pricing precision during 2013, including use in additional states of predictive modeling tools for small business policies written through our CinciPakTM product. Progress during the first nine months of 2013 included implementing CinciPak in eight additional states, bringing the total number of states where that product was available to 16 at the end of the third quarter. We are also making progress with predictive modeling for dwelling fire policies and development of a by-peril rating plan for homeowners. We plan to introduce both in select states in 2014. By-peril rating for homeowner policies will improve pricing precision by separately pricing for the risk of losses from distinct perils, such as wind versus fire.

Improve internal processes - Improved processes support our strategic goals, reducing internal costs and allowing us to focus more resources on providing agency services. Related efforts include additional streamlining of processes to issue qualified personal lines or small commercial lines business without intervention by an underwriter. Progress during the first nine months of 2013 included expanding streamlined processing of small commercial property and general liability policies to additional states, making it now available in 36 states. We plan to deploy this streamlined processing for commercial auto policies by the end of 2013. Further streamlined processing for personal lines policy renewal transactions was developed and piloted in seven states during the first three quarters of 2013, following successful 2012 implementation for new business policies. By early 2014, we plan to deploy it to all other states where we market personal lines policies. Audits of policies processed without an underwriter continue to indicate that those automated policies are being underwritten appropriately and issued as intended.

We measure the overall success of our strategy to improve property casualty insurance profitability primarily through our GAAP combined ratio, which we believe can be consistently within the range of 95 percent to 100 percent for any five-year period. We also compare our statutory combined ratio to the industry average to gauge our progress, as discussed in the Performance Drivers section above.

In addition, we expect these initiatives to contribute to our rank as the No. 1 or No. 2 carrier based on premium volume in agencies that have represented us for at least five years. We again earned that rank in nearly 75 percent of the agencies that have represented Cincinnati Insurance for more than five years, based on 2012 premiums. We are working to increase the percentage of agencies where we achieve that rank.

Drive Premium Growth
 
Primary initiatives to drive premium growth include:

Expansion of our marketing and service capabilities - We continue to enhance our generalist approach to allow our appointed agencies to better compete in the marketplace by providing services an agency’s clients want and need. Expansion initiatives include ongoing development of targeted marketing programs, adding field marketing representatives for increased agency support in selected areas and piloting new services for select agencies to develop our new customer care center for small commercial business policies. Progress during the first nine months of 2013 included launching two of the four additional target market programs we plan to offer by the end of the year. We also completed the initial implementation in selected markets of a small consumer advertising campaign to test this mode of support for our independent agents and are evaluating results. We expanded our excess and surplus lines field underwriting presence by adding five field marketing representatives. In addition, we added two field marketing representatives to support agencies in new marketing territories for commercial lines operations.


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 33



New agency appointments - We continue to appoint new agencies to develop additional points of distribution, focusing on areas where our market share is less than 1 percent while also considering economic and catastrophe risk factors. In 2013, we initially targeted approximately 65 appointments of independent agencies and now intend to exceed that target by approximately 20 appointments. During the first nine months of 2013, we appointed 78 new agencies that write in aggregate approximately $1.5 billion in property casualty premiums annually with various insurance carriers for an average of approximately $20 million per agency. As of September 30, 2013, a total of 1,439 agency relationships market our standard market insurance products from 1,811 reporting locations.

We seek to build a close, long-term relationship with each agency we appoint. We carefully evaluate the marketing reach of each new appointment to ensure the territory can support both current and new agencies. Our 130 commercial lines field marketing territories are staffed by marketing representatives averaging 20 years of industry experience and 10 years as a Cincinnati Insurance field marketing representative. Teams of field associates for each territory work together, providing local expertise with support from headquarters associates. This agent-centered business model helps us better understand the accounts we underwrite and creates marketing advantages for our agents. Unique Cincinnati-style service supports our agents as they grow their business and attract more clients in their communities. As a result, we generally have earned a 10 percent share of an agency’s business within 10 years of its appointment.

We measure the overall success of our strategy to drive premium growth primarily through changes in net written premiums, as discussed in the Performance Drivers section above. In addition to tracking our progress toward our year-end 2015 annual direct written premiums target of $5 billion, we believe we can grow faster than the industry average over any five-year period.
 
Financial Strength

An important part of our long-term strategy is financial strength, which is described in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1, Our Business and Our Strategy, Financial Strength, Page 5. One aspect of our financial strength is prudent use of reinsurance to help manage financial performance variability due to catastrophe loss experience. A description of how we use reinsurance is included in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Liquidity and Capital Resources, 2013 Reinsurance Programs, Page 95. Another aspect is our investment portfolios, which remain well-diversified as discussed in this quarterly report Item 3, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk. We continue to maintain strong parent-company liquidity and financial strength that increase our flexibility through all periods to maintain our cash dividend and to continue to invest in and expand our insurance operations.

At September 30, 2013, we held $1.572 billion of our cash and invested assets at the parent-company level, of which $1.253 billion, or 79.7 percent, was invested in common stocks, and $198 million, or 12.6 percent, was cash or cash equivalents. Our debt-to-total-capital ratio at 13.3 percent remains well below our target limit. Another important indicator of financial strength is our ratio of property casualty net written premiums to statutory surplus, which was 0.9‑to‑1 for the 12 months ended September 30, 2013, unchanged from year-end 2012.

Our financial strength ratings assigned by independent ratings firms also are important. In addition to rating our parent company’s senior debt, four firms award insurer financial strength ratings to one or more of our insurance subsidiary companies based on their quantitative and qualitative analyses. These ratings primarily assess an insurer’s ability to meet financial obligations to policyholders and do not necessarily address all of the matters that may be important to investors. Ratings may be subject to revision or withdrawal at any time by the rating agency, and each rating should be evaluated independently of any other rating.


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 34



As of October 23, 2013, our insurer financial strength ratings were:

Insurer Financial Strength Ratings
Rating
Agency
 
Standard Market Property
Casualty Insurance Subsidiary
 
Life Insurance
 Subsidiary
 
Excess and Surplus
Insurance
 Subsidiary
 
Date of Most Recent
Affirmation or Action
 
 
 
 
 
 
Rating
Tier
 
 
 
 
 
Rating
Tier
 
 
 
 
 
Rating
Tier
 
 
A.M. Best Co.
 
A+
 
Superior
 
2 of 16
 
A
 
Excellent
 
3 of 16
 
A
 
Excellent
 
3 of 16
 
Stable outlook (12/19/12)
Fitch Ratings
 
A+
 
Strong
 
5 of 21
 
A+
 
Strong
 
5 of 21
 
-
 
-
 
-
 
Stable outlook (5/01/13)
Moody's Investors  Service
 
A1
 
Good
 
5 of 21
 
-
 
-
 
-
 
-
 
-
 
-
 
Stable outlook (04/30/13)
Standard & Poor's  Ratings Services
 
A
 
Strong
 
6 of 21
 
A
 
Strong
 
6 of 21
 
-
 
-
 
-
 
Stable outlook (6/24/13)

All of our insurance subsidiaries continue to be highly rated.

On April 30, 2013, Moody’s Investors Service affirmed our insurance financial strength ratings that it had assigned in September 2008, revising its outlook to stable from negative. Moody’s reported that its rating is based on our entrenched regional franchise from our strong relationships with agents, our focus on small- and middle-market commercial lines risks and our good risk-adjusted capital position. Moody’ said other strengths include consistent reserve strength with strong financial flexibility and substantial holding company liquidity. Moody’s added that our strengths are tempered by factors such as exposure to Midwest weather-related catastrophes, potential investment volatility due to a sizeable position in common equities relative to peers and competition from well-capitalized nationwide commercial lines carriers.
 
On May 1, 2013, Fitch Ratings affirmed our ratings that it had assigned in September 2010, continuing its stable outlook. Fitch noted that ratings strengths include conservative capitalization, our sizeable holding company cash and marketable securities position and a moderate financial leverage ratio. Fitch noted our reserve adequacy and benefits from our implementation of underwriting and pricing actions. Fitch said its rating could be unfavorably affected by a combined ratio exceeding 105 percent on a sustained basis or by deterioration in current balance sheet strengths.

On June 24, 2013, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services affirmed our ratings that it had assigned in August 2011, continuing its stable outlook. S&P said its rating reflected our strong competitive position and extremely strong capital and earnings, and also noted our geographic diversity and diversification benefits from our life insurance business. S&P stated that our risk position is moderate despite potential earnings volatility stemming from exposure to weather-related catastrophe losses, and that its rating could be unfavorably affected if capital adequacy deteriorated for a prolonged period of time or if earnings weakened substantially.


RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
 
Consolidated results reflect the operating results of each of our five segments along with the parent company and other activities reported as “Other.” The five segments are:
 
Commercial lines property casualty insurance
Personal lines property casualty insurance
Excess and surplus lines property casualty insurance
Life insurance
Investments


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 35



We report as Other the noninvestment operations of the parent company and its noninsurer subsidiary, CFC Investment Company. See Item 1, Note 13, Segment Information, for discussion of the calculations of segment data. Results of operations for each of the five segments are discussed below.
 

 
CONSOLIDATED PROPERTY CASUALTY INSURANCE RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
 
Consolidated property casualty insurance results include premiums and expenses for our standard market insurance (commercial lines and personal lines segments) as well as our surplus lines operations.
 
(Dollars in millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
Earned premiums
 
$
954

 
$
851

 
12

 
$
2,753

 
$
2,475

 
11

Fee revenues
 
1

 
1

 
0

 
3

 
4

 
(25
)
Total revenues
 
955

 
852

 
12

 
2,756

 
2,479

 
11

Loss and loss expenses from:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Current accident year before catastrophe losses
 
568

 
531

 
7

 
1,675

 
1,648

 
2

Current accident year catastrophe losses
 
63

 
80

 
(21
)
 
165

 
343

 
(52
)
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
 
(29
)
 
(74
)
 
61

 
(116
)
 
(248
)
 
53

Prior accident years catastrophe losses
 
(9
)
 
(12
)
 
25

 
(24
)
 
(39
)
 
38

Loss and loss expenses
 
593

 
525

 
13

 
1,700

 
1,704

 
0

Underwriting expenses
 
301

 
282

 
7

 
883

 
798

 
11

Underwriting profit (loss)
 
$
61

 
$
45

 
36

 
$
173

 
$
(23
)
 
nm

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:
 
 

 
 

 
Pt. Change

 
 

 
 

 
Pt. Change

    Current accident year before catastrophe losses
 
59.5
 %
 
62.3
 %
 
(2.8
)
 
60.8
 %
 
66.6
 %
 
(5.8
)
    Current accident year catastrophe losses
 
6.7

 
9.4

 
(2.7
)
 
6.0

 
13.9

 
(7.9
)
    Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
 
(3.0
)
 
(8.6
)
 
5.6

 
(4.2
)
 
(10.0
)
 
5.8

    Prior accident years catastrophe losses
 
(1.0
)
 
(1.4
)
 
0.4

 
(0.9
)
 
(1.6
)
 
0.7

Loss and loss expenses
 
62.2

 
61.7

 
0.5

 
61.7

 
68.9

 
(7.2
)
Underwriting expenses
 
31.5

 
33.1

 
(1.6
)
 
32.1

 
32.2

 
(0.1
)
Combined ratio
 
93.7
 %
 
94.8
 %
 
(1.1
)
 
93.8
 %
 
101.1
 %
 
(7.3
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Combined ratio
 
93.7
 %
 
94.8
 %
 
(1.1
)
 
93.8
 %
 
101.1
 %
 
(7.3
)
Contribution from catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development
 
2.7

 
(0.6
)
 
3.3

 
0.9

 
2.3

 
(1.4
)
Combined ratio before catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development
 
91.0
 %
 
95.4
 %
 
(4.4
)
 
92.9
 %
 
98.8
 %
 
(5.9
)
 
Our consolidated property casualty insurance operations generated underwriting profits of $61 million and $173 million for the third quarter of 2013 and nine months ended September 30, 2013, compared with an underwriting profit of $45 million for the third quarter of 2012 and an underwriting loss of $23 million for the first nine months of 2012. Improved 2013 underwriting results included lower losses from natural catastrophes and better current accident year loss experience before catastrophes, reflecting higher pricing in addition to the effects of our initiatives to improve pricing precision and loss experience related to claims and loss control practices. Prior accident year loss experience before catastrophes during the third quarter and first nine months of 2013 was less favorable than the same periods in 2012. The less favorable experience was primarily due to re-estimates of losses incurred but not reported (IBNR). Details of property casualty insurance results are discussed below, including our commercial lines, personal lines and excess and surplus lines segments.
 
We measure and analyze property casualty underwriting results primarily by the combined ratio and its component ratios. The GAAP-basis combined ratio is the percentage of incurred losses plus all expenses per each earned

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 36



premium dollar – the lower the ratio, the better the performance. An underwriting profit results when the combined ratio is below 100 percent. A combined ratio above 100 percent indicates that an insurance company’s losses and expenses exceeded premiums.

Our consolidated property casualty combined ratio for the third quarter improved 1.1 percentage points and for the first nine months of 2013 it improved 7.3 points, both compared with the same periods of 2012. Catastrophe losses were 2.3 and 7.2 percentage points lower, accounting for most of the improvement.
 
The combined ratio can be affected significantly by natural catastrophe losses and other large losses as discussed in detail below. The combined ratio can also be affected by updated estimates of loss and loss expense reserves established for claims that occurred in prior periods, referred to as prior accident years. Net favorable development on prior accident year reserves, including reserves for catastrophe losses, lowered the combined ratio by 5.1 percentage points in the first nine months of 2013, compared with 11.6 percentage points in the same period of 2012. Net favorable development is discussed in further detail in results of operations by property casualty insurance segment.
 
The ratio for current accident year loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses also improved. The 60.8 percent ratio for the first nine months of 2013 improved 5.8 percentage points compared with the 66.6 percent accident year 2012 ratio measured as of September 30, 2012, largely reflecting recent-year initiatives to improve pricing precision and loss experience related to claims and loss control practices, along with improving market conditions. Improving market conditions included overall higher pricing, somewhat offset by normal loss cost inflation. The ratio for new large losses incurred, shown on the table below, Consolidated Property Casualty Insurance Losses by Size, contributed 0.3 percentage points to the overall improvement in the ratio for current accident year loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses.
 
The underwriting expense ratio decreased for the third quarter and first nine months of 2013, compared with the same periods of 2012, as lower costs for various assigned risk insurance pools helped offset higher commissions. Higher earned premiums also contributed to the decrease in the 2013 underwriting expense ratios.

Consolidated Property Casualty Insurance Premiums
(Dollars in millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,

 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
Agency renewal written premiums
 
$
915

 
$
807

 
13

 
$
2,639

 
$
2,367

 
11

Agency new business written premiums
 
141

 
130

 
8

 
415

 
369

 
12

Other written premiums
 
(25
)
 
(38
)
 
34

 
(69
)
 
(91
)
 
24

Net written premiums
 
1,031

 
899

 
15

 
2,985

 
2,645

 
13

Unearned premium change
 
(77
)
 
(48
)
 
(60
)
 
(232
)
 
(170
)
 
(36
)
Earned premiums
 
$
954

 
$
851

 
12

 
$
2,753

 
$
2,475

 
11

 
The trends in net written premiums and earned premiums summarized in the table above largely reflect the effects of our premium growth strategies and better pricing.
 
Consolidated property casualty net written premiums for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2013, grew $132 million and $340 million compared with the same periods of 2012. Each of our property casualty segments continued to grow during the third quarter and first nine months of 2013. Our premium growth initiatives from prior years provided an ongoing favorable effect on growth during 2013, particularly as newer agency relationships mature over time. We discuss current initiatives in the Highlights of Our Strategy and Supporting Initiatives section of this quarterly report. The main drivers of trends for 2013 are discussed by segment below in Results of Operations.


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 37



Consolidated property casualty agency new business written premiums for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2013, increased $11 million and $46 million compared with the same periods of 2012. We continued to experience new business growth related to initiatives for geographic expansion into new and underserved areas. New agency appointments during 2012 and 2013 produced a $25 million increase in standard lines new business for the first nine months of 2013 compared with the same period in 2012. As we appoint new agencies that choose to move accounts to us, we report these accounts as new business. While this business is new to us, in many cases it is not new to the agent. We believe these seasoned accounts tend to be priced more accurately than business that may be less familiar to our agent upon obtaining it from a competing agent.
 
Other written premiums include premiums ceded to our reinsurers as part of our reinsurance program. Ceded premiums reduced net written premium growth by $1 million and $11 million for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2013, compared with the same periods of 2012.
 

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Page 38



Catastrophe losses typically have a meaningful effect on property casualty results and can vary significantly from period to period. Losses from natural catastrophes contributed 5.7 and 5.1 percentage points to the combined ratio in the third quarter and first nine months of 2013, compared with 8.0 and 12.3 percentage points in the same periods of 2012. Some of those losses were applicable to loss deductible provisions of collateralized reinsurance funded through catastrophe bonds. Aggregate losses for the first nine months of 2013, for the 75 counties included in the severe convective storm portion of that catastrophe reinsurance coverage, were approximately $10 million in excess of the $5 million per-event deductible. If aggregate losses after deductibles exceed $125 million during 2013, we can recover the excess through funds that collateralize the catastrophe bonds. The following table shows catastrophe losses and loss expenses incurred, net of reinsurance, as well as the effect of loss development on prior period catastrophe events. We individually list declared catastrophe events for which our incurred losses reached or exceeded $5 million.

Catastrophe Losses Incurred

(In millions, net of reinsurance)
 
 
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
 
 
 
 
Comm.
 
Pers.
 
E&S
 
 

 
Comm.
 
Pers.
 
E&S
 
 

Dates
 
Event
 
Region
 
lines
 
lines
 
lines
 
Total
 
lines
 
lines
 
lines
 
Total
2013
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

First quarter catastrophes
 
$

 
$

 
$

 
$

 
$
7

 
$
9

 
$

 
$
16

Apr. 7-11
 
Hail, lightning, wind
 
West, Midwest
 

 
1

 

 
1

 
14

 
9

 

 
23

Apr. 16-19
 
Hail, lightning, wind
 
Midwest
 
1

 

 

 
1

 
5

 
6

 

 
11

May 18-20
 
Hail, lightning, wind
 
South, Midwest, Northeast
 
1

 
(1
)
 

 

 
9

 
1

 

 
10

May 28-29
 
Hail, lightning, wind
 
South
 
2

 

 
1

 
3

 
8

 
4

 
1

 
13

Jun. 12-14
 
Hail, lightning, wind
 
South, Midwest
 

 

 

 

 
2

 
6

 

 
8

Jun. 24-26
 
Hail, lightning, wind
 
Midwest, Northeast
 
4

 

 

 
4

 
7

 
6

 

 
13

Jul. 9-11
 
Hail, lightning, wind
 
Midwest, Northeast
 
4

 
6

 

 
10

 
5

 
6

 

 
11

Jul. 23-24
 
Hail, lightning, wind
 
South, Midwest
 
15

 
5

 

 
20

 
15

 
5

 

 
20

Aug. 6-7
 
Hail, lightning, wind
 
Midwest
 
5

 
9

 

 
14

 
5

 
9

 

 
14

All other 2013 catastrophes
 
 
 
8

 
2

 

 
10

 
21

 
5

 

 
26

Development on 2012 and prior catastrophes
 
(3
)
 
(6
)
 

 
(9
)
 
(13
)
 
(11
)
 

 
(24
)
Calendar year incurred total
 
 
 
$
37

 
$
16

 
$
1

 
$
54

 
$
85

 
$
55

 
$
1

 
$
141

2012
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

First quarter catastrophes
 
 
 
$

 
$
1

 
$

 
$
1

 
$
51

 
$
58

 
$
1

 
$
110

Apr. 28-29
 
Hail, lightning, wind
 
Midwest, South
 
3

 
3

 

 
6

 
57

 
25

 

 
82

Jun. 11-13
 
Hail, lightning, wind
 
West, South
 
1

 

 

 
1

 
7

 

 

 
7

Jun. 28-Jul.2
 
Hail, lightning, wind
 
Midwest, Northeast,
South
 
37

 
10

 

 
47

 
40

 
42

 

 
82

Jul. 2-4
 
Hail, lightning, wind
 
Midwest, Northeast
 
7

 
6

 

 
13

 
7

 
6

 

 
13

Sep. 7-8
 
Hail, lightning, wind
 
Midwest, Northeast,
South
 
4

 
1

 

 
5

 
4

 
1

 

 
5

All other 2012 catastrophes
 
 
 
2

 
6

 

 
8

 
20

 
17

 

 
37

Development on 2011 and prior catastrophes
 
(7
)
 
(5
)
 

 
(12
)
 
(18
)
 
(21
)
 

 
(39
)
Calendar year incurred total
 
 
 
$
46

 
$
22

 
$

 
$
68

 
$
175

 
$
128

 
$
1

 
$
304

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The following table includes data for losses incurred of $250,000 or more per claim, net of reinsurance.
 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 39



Consolidated Property Casualty Insurance Losses by Size
  
(Dollars in millions, net of reinsurance)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
New losses greater than $4,000,000
 
$
16

 
$
21

 
(24
)
 
$
63

 
$
36

 
75

New losses $1,000,000-$4,000,000
 
46

 
39

 
18

 
114

 
117

 
(3
)
New losses $250,000-$1,000,000
 
52

 
50

 
4

 
156

 
152

 
3

Case reserve development above $250,000
 
60

 
60

 

 
183

 
182

 
1

Total large losses incurred
 
174

 
170

 
2

 
516

 
487

 
6

Other losses excluding catastrophe losses
 
266

 
217

 
23

 
788

 
664

 
19

Catastrophe losses
 
53

 
62

 
(15
)
 
137

 
295

 
(54
)
Total losses incurred
 
$
493

 
$
449

 
10

 
$
1,441

 
$
1,446

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:
 
 
 
 
 
Pt. Change
 
 
 
 
 
Pt. Change
   New losses greater than $4,000,000
 
1.7
%
 
2.5
%
 
(0.8
)
 
2.3
%
 
1.4
%
 
0.9

   New losses $1,000,000-$4,000,000
 
4.9

 
4.6

 
0.3

 
4.1

 
4.7

 
(0.6
)
   New losses $250,000-$1,000,000
 
5.4

 
5.9

 
(0.5
)
 
5.6

 
6.2

 
(0.6
)
   Case reserve development above $250,000
 
6.3

 
7.0

 
(0.7
)
 
6.7

 
7.4

 
(0.7
)
Total large loss ratio
 
18.3

 
20.0

 
(1.7
)
 
18.7

 
19.7

 
(1.0
)
   Other losses excluding catastrophe losses
 
27.9

 
25.5

 
2.4

 
28.6

 
26.8

 
1.8

   Catastrophe losses
 
5.5

 
7.3

 
(1.8
)
 
5.0

 
11.9

 
(6.9
)
Total loss ratio
 
51.7
%
 
52.8
%
 
(1.1
)
 
52.3
%
 
58.4
%
 
(6.1
)
 

We believe the inherent variability of aggregate loss experience for our portfolio of larger policies is greater than that of our portfolio of smaller policies, and we continue to monitor the variability in addition to general inflationary trends in loss costs. Our analysis continues to indicate no unexpected concentration of these large losses and case reserve increases by risk category, geographic region, policy inception, agency or field marketing territory. The third‑quarter 2013 property casualty total large losses incurred of $174 million, net of reinsurance, were slightly higher than the $171 million quarterly average during 2012 and were higher than the $170 million for the third quarter of 2012. The ratio for these large losses and case reserve increases was 1.7 percentage points lower compared with last year’s third quarter, with new losses down 1.0 points and case reserve development down 0.7 points. The third-quarter 2013 amount of total large losses incurred helped decrease the nine-month 2013 total large loss ratio, compared with 2012, in addition to a first-half 2013 ratio that was 0.4 lower than the first half of 2012. We believe results for the three-month and nine-month periods largely reflected normal fluctuations in loss patterns and normal variability in large case reserves for claims above $250,000. Losses by size are discussed in further detail in results of operations by property casualty insurance segment.


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 40




COMMERCIAL LINES INSURANCE RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
 
(Dollars in millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,

 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
Earned premiums
 
$
680

 
$
607

 
12

 
$
1,956

 
$
1,765

 
11

Fee revenues
 
1

 

 
nm

 
2

 
2

 
0

Total revenues
 
681

 
607

 
12

 
1,958

 
1,767

 
11

Loss and loss expenses from:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Current accident year before catastrophe losses
 
394

 
354

 
11

 
1,178

 
1,136

 
4

Current accident year catastrophe losses
 
40

 
52

 
(23
)
 
98

 
193

 
(49
)
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
 
(10
)
 
(48
)
 
79

 
(78
)
 
(198
)
 
61

Prior accident years catastrophe losses
 
(3
)
 
(6
)
 
50

 
(13
)
 
(18
)
 
28

Loss and loss expenses
 
421

 
352

 
20

 
1,185

 
1,113

 
6

Underwriting expenses
 
217

 
195

 
11

 
638

 
580

 
10

Underwriting profit
 
$
43

 
$
60

 
(28
)
 
$
135

 
$
74

 
82

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:
 
 
 
 
 
Pt. Change
 
 
 
 
 
Pt. Change
Current accident year before catastrophe losses
 
57.9
 %
 
58.3
 %
 
(0.4
)
 
60.2
 %
 
64.3
 %
 
(4.1
)
Current accident year catastrophe losses
 
6.0

 
8.6

 
(2.6
)
 
5.1

 
10.9

 
(5.8
)
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
 
(1.4
)
 
(7.8
)
 
6.4

 
(4.0
)
 
(11.2
)
 
7.2

Prior accident years catastrophe losses
 
(0.6
)
 
(1.1
)
 
0.5

 
(0.7
)
 
(1.0
)
 
0.3

Loss and loss expenses
 
61.9

 
58.0

 
3.9

 
60.6

 
63.0

 
(2.4
)
Underwriting expenses
 
31.8

 
32.2

 
(0.4
)
 
32.6

 
32.9

 
(0.3
)
Combined ratio
 
93.7
 %
 
90.2
 %
 
3.5

 
93.2
 %
 
95.9
 %
 
(2.7
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Combined ratio
 
93.7
 %
 
90.2
 %
 
3.5

 
93.2
 %
 
95.9
 %
 
(2.7
)
Contribution from catastrophe losses and prior
   years reserve development
 
4.0

 
(0.3
)
 
4.3

 
0.4

 
(1.3
)
 
1.7

Combined ratio before catastrophe losses and
   prior years reserve development
 
89.7
 %
 
90.5
 %
 
(0.8
)
 
92.8
 %
 
97.2
 %
 
(4.4
)

 
Overview
 
Performance highlights for the commercial lines segment include:
 
Premiums – Commercial lines earned premiums and net written premiums rose during the third quarter and first nine months of 2013 primarily due to higher renewal premiums that continued to reflect improved pricing. Higher new business written premiums again contributed significantly to premium growth, reflecting better pricing as well as our premium growth initiatives. The premiums table below analyzes the primary components of earned premiums. We continue to use predictive analytics tools to improve pricing precision while also leveraging our local relationships with agents through the efforts of our teams that work closely with them. We seek to maintain appropriate pricing discipline for both new and renewal business as our agents and underwriters assess account quality to make careful decisions on a case-by-case basis whether to write or renew a policy.

Agency renewal written premiums rose 13 percent and 11 percent for the third quarter and first nine months of 2013, reflecting higher pricing and improving economic conditions. We measure average changes in commercial lines renewal pricing as the rate of change in renewal premium for the new policy period compared with the premium for the expiring policy period, assuming no change in the level of insured exposures or policy coverage between those periods for respective policies. During the third quarter of 2013, our standard commercial lines policies averaged estimated price increases in a mid-single-digit range, consistent with the first half of 2013 with the exception of commercial casualty, our most profitable major line of business with a loss and loss expenses ratio of 45.0 percent for the first nine months of 2013. Our average commercial lines

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 41



pricing change includes the flat pricing effect of certain coverages within package policies written for a three-year term that were in force but did not expire during the period being measured. Therefore, the average commercial lines pricing change we report reflects a blend of three‑year policies that did not expire and other policies that did expire during the measurement period. For only those commercial lines policies that did expire and were subsequently renewed during the third quarter of 2013, we estimate that the average price increase was again near the upper end of the mid-single-digit range, with smaller commercial property policies experiencing average renewal price increases at a high-single-digit rate.

Renewal premiums for our commercial casualty and workers’ compensation lines include the result of policy audits that adjust initial premium amounts based on differences between estimated and actual sales or payroll related to a specific policy. Net written premiums from audits during the third quarter and first nine months of 2013 netted a positive $13 million and $34 million, respectively. Audits contributed $2 million to the $100 million net increase in net written premiums for the third quarter of 2013 and $9 million to the $254 million net increase in net written premiums for the first nine months of 2013, both compared with the same periods a year ago. The $191 million increase in earned premiums during the first nine months of 2013, compared with 2012, included a decrease from audit premiums of $3 million.
 
New business written premiums for commercial lines increased 13 percent and 17 percent during the third quarter and first nine months of 2013, compared with the same periods last year. In 23 of the 39 states where we market standard market commercial lines policies, new business written premiums grew at a double-digit rate or higher for the nine-month period of 2013 compared with the same period of 2012.
 
Other written premiums – which primarily include premiums ceded to our reinsurers as part of our reinsurance program – included ceded commercial lines premiums for the third quarter of 2013 that totaled $2 million more than the third quarter of 2012. For the first nine months of 2013, ceded premiums were essentially even with the same period of 2012. Other written premiums also included a more favorable adjustment for the third quarter and first nine months of 2013, compared with the same periods last year, for estimated direct written premiums of policies in effect but not yet processed. The adjustments had an immaterial effect on earned premiums.
 
Commercial Lines Insurance Premiums
 
(Dollars in millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
Agency renewal written premiums
 
$
632

 
$
557

 
13

 
$
1,865

 
$
1,680

 
11

Agency new business written premiums
 
102

 
90

 
13

 
299

 
256

 
17

Other written premiums
 
(15
)
 
(28
)
 
46

 
(39
)
 
(65
)
 
40

Net written premiums
 
719

 
619

 
16

 
2,125

 
1,871

 
14

Unearned premium change
 
(39
)
 
(12
)
 
(225
)
 
(169
)
 
(106
)
 
(59
)
Earned premiums
 
$
680

 
$
607

 
12

 
$
1,956

 
$
1,765

 
11

 
Combined ratio – The commercial lines combined ratio improved for the nine months ended September 30, 2013, compared with the same period of 2012, primarily due to weather-related natural catastrophe losses that were 5.5 percentage points lower. For the third quarter of 2013, the combined ratio was higher than the third quarter of 2012 as a lower benefit from favorable reserve development on prior accident years offset lower catastrophe losses.

Catastrophe losses accounted for 5.4 and 4.4 percentage points of the combined ratio for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2013, compared with 7.5 and 9.9 percentage points for the same periods last year. The 10-year annual average catastrophe loss impact through 2012 for the commercial lines segment is 4.3 percentage points, and the five-year annual average is 5.9 percentage points.
 
The ratio for current accident year loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses improved. The 60.2 percent ratio for the first nine months of 2013 improved 4.1 percentage points compared with the 64.3 percent accident year 2012 ratio measured as of September 30, 2012, reflecting both our profit‑improvement initiatives and improving market conditions. Higher new large losses incurred, shown in the table below, increased the 2013 ratio 0.7 percentage points more than in 2012 and partially offset other effects

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 42



that improved the ratio. We believe the net improvement is largely due to initiatives to improve pricing precision and loss experience related to claims and loss control practices, in addition to higher prices that were somewhat offset by normal loss cost inflation or inherent variability of large losses.

The net effect of reserve development on prior accident years during the third quarter and first nine months of 2013 was favorable for commercial lines overall by $13 million and $91 million compared with $54 million and $216 million for the same periods in 2012. For the nine months ended September 30, 2013, favorable reserve development on prior accident years in the commercial casualty line of business represented 81 percent of the commercial lines favorable development. Workers’ compensation accounted for 15 percent of the favorable development, with the remaining commercial lines of business netting to 4 percent. The favorable reserve development recognized during the first nine months of 2013 for commercial lines included 59 percent for accident year 2012 and 23 percent for accident year 2011, and was primarily due to lower than anticipated loss emergence on known claims. Reserve estimates are inherently uncertain as described in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Critical Accounting Estimates, Property Casualty Insurance Loss and Loss Expense Reserves, Page 43.
 
The commercial lines underwriting expense ratio decreased for the third quarter and first nine months of 2013, compared with the same periods of 2012, primarily due to higher earned premiums.
 
Underwriting results and related measures for the combined ratio are summarized in the first table of Commercial Lines Insurance Results of Operations. The tables and discussion below provide additional details for certain primary drivers of underwriting results.
 
Commercial Lines Insurance Losses by Size
 
(Dollars in millions, net of reinsurance)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
New losses greater than $4,000,000
 
$
16

 
$
21

 
(24
)
 
$
63

 
$
36

 
75

New losses $1,000,000-$4,000,000
 
31

 
30

 
3

 
90

 
86

 
5

New losses $250,000-$1,000,000
 
36

 
33

 
9

 
110

 
101

 
9

Case reserve development above $250,000
 
52

 
56

 
(7
)
 
165

 
171

 
(4
)
Total large losses incurred
 
135

 
140

 
(4
)
 
428

 
394

 
9

Other losses excluding catastrophe losses
 
177

 
117

 
51

 
491

 
360

 
36

Catastrophe losses
 
36

 
43

 
(16
)
 
82

 
170

 
(52
)
Total losses incurred
 
$
348

 
$
300

 
16

 
$
1,001

 
$
924

 
8

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:
 
 
 
 
 
Pt. Change
 
 
 
 
 
Pt. Change
   New losses greater than $4,000,000
 
2.4
%
 
3.4
%
 
(1.0
)
 
3.2
%
 
2.0
%
 
1.2

   New losses $1,000,000-$4,000,000
 
4.7

 
4.9

 
(0.2
)
 
4.6

 
4.9

 
(0.3
)
   New losses $250,000-$1,000,000
 
5.2

 
5.5

 
(0.3
)
 
5.6

 
5.8

 
(0.2
)
   Case reserve development above $250,000
 
7.5

 
9.3

 
(1.8
)
 
8.4

 
9.7

 
(1.3
)
Total large loss ratio
 
19.8

 
23.1

 
(3.3
)
 
21.8

 
22.4

 
(0.6
)
   Other losses excluding catastrophe losses
 
26.2

 
19.3

 
6.9

 
25.1

 
20.4

 
4.7

   Catastrophe losses
 
5.2

 
7.1

 
(1.9
)
 
4.2

 
9.6

 
(5.4
)
Total loss ratio
 
51.2
%
 
49.5
%
 
1.7

 
51.1
%
 
52.4
%
 
(1.3
)

We continue to monitor new losses and case reserve increases greater than $250,000 for trends in factors such as initial reserve levels, loss cost inflation and claim settlement expenses. Our analysis continues to indicate no unexpected concentration of these large losses and case reserve increases by risk category, geographic region, policy inception, agency or field marketing territory. The third-quarter 2013 commercial lines total large losses incurred of $135 million, net of reinsurance, were lower than the $141 million quarterly average during 2012. They were also lower than the $140 million total large losses incurred for the third quarter of 2012, primarily due to lower surety and executive risk losses. The ratio for these large losses and case reserve increases was 3.3 percentage points lower compared with last year’s third quarter, and helped decrease the nine-month 2013 total large loss ratio that was 1.0 points higher for the first half of 2013 compared with the 2012 period. We believe results for the

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 43



three‑month and nine-month periods largely reflected normal fluctuations in loss patterns and normal variability in large case reserves for claims above $250,000.

Commercial Lines of Business Analysis
 
Approximately 95 percent of our commercial lines premiums relate to accounts with coverages from more than one of our business lines. As a result, we believe that our commercial lines business is best measured and evaluated on a segment basis. However, we provide line of business data to summarize premium and loss trends separately for each line. The ratios shown in the table below are components of loss and loss expenses as a percentage of earned premiums.  
(Dollars in millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
Commercial casualty:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Written premiums
 
$
232

 
$
200

 
16

 
$
691

 
$
604

 
14

Earned premiums
 
221

 
197

 
12

 
636

 
569

 
12

Current accident year before catastrophe losses
 
53.5
 %
 
52.1
 %
 
 

 
56.6
 %
 
63.0
 %
 
 

Current accident year catastrophe losses
 

 

 
 

 

 

 
 

Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
 
(8.4
)
 
(12.9
)
 
 

 
(11.6
)
 
(22.8
)
 
 

Prior accident years catastrophe losses
 

 

 
 

 

 

 
 

Total loss and loss expenses ratio
 
45.1
 %
 
39.2
 %
 
 

 
45.0
 %
 
40.2
 %
 
 

Commercial property:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Written premiums
 
$
186

 
$
150

 
24

 
$
516

 
$
437

 
18

Earned premiums
 
161

 
138

 
17

 
460

 
403

 
14

Current accident year before catastrophe losses
 
49.6
 %
 
45.3
 %
 
 

 
50.5
 %
 
52.5
 %
 
 

Current accident year catastrophe losses
 
19.1

 
29.6

 
 

 
17.0

 
39.2

 
 

Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
 
1.4

 
(2.1
)
 
 

 
(0.9
)
 
(3.3
)
 
 

Prior accident years catastrophe losses
 
(2.0
)
 
(0.7
)
 
 

 
(2.4
)
 
(1.7
)
 
 

Total loss and loss expenses ratio
 
68.1
 %
 
72.1
 %
 
 

 
64.2
 %
 
86.7
 %
 
 

Commercial auto:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Written premiums
 
$
128

 
$
109

 
17

 
$
390

 
$
338

 
15

Earned premiums
 
124

 
108

 
15

 
355

 
315

 
13

Current accident year before catastrophe losses
 
64.3
 %
 
71.1
 %
 
 

 
66.7
 %
 
72.2
 %
 
 

Current accident year catastrophe losses
 
0.9

 
0.8

 
 

 
0.9

 
1.8

 
 

Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
 
(0.4
)
 
4.9

 
 

 
(0.5
)
 
(2.7
)
 
 

Prior accident years catastrophe losses
 
(0.2
)
 
(0.2
)
 
 

 
(0.2
)
 
(0.3
)
 
 

Total loss and loss expenses ratio
 
64.6
 %
 
76.6
 %
 
 

 
66.9
 %
 
71.0
 %
 
 

Workers' compensation:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Written premiums
 
$
90

 
$
78

 
15

 
$
288

 
$
257

 
12

Earned premiums
 
95

 
89

 
7

 
270

 
255

 
6

Current accident year before catastrophe losses
 
78.6
 %
 
80.8
 %
 
 

 
78.4
 %
 
81.5
 %
 
 

Current accident year catastrophe losses
 

 

 
 

 

 

 
 

Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
 
9.3

 
(25.7
)
 
 

 
(5.1
)
 
(19.8
)
 
 

Prior accident years catastrophe losses
 

 

 
 

 

 

 
 

Total loss and loss expenses ratio
 
87.9
 %
 
55.1
 %
 
 

 
73.3
 %
 
61.7
 %
 
 


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 44



(Dollars in millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
Specialty packages:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Written premiums
 
$
36

 
$
39

 
(8
)
 
$
112

 
$
117

 
(4
)
Earned premiums
 
38

 
37

 
3

 
114

 
112

 
2

Current accident year before catastrophe losses
 
56.2
 %
 
56.7
 %
 
 

 
69.9
 %
 
65.3
 %
 
 

Current accident year catastrophe losses
 
22.9

 
29.3

 
 

 
15.1

 
26.0

 
 

Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
 
9.0

 
9.1

 
 

 
1.1

 
(2.7
)
 
 

Prior accident years catastrophe losses
 
(0.1
)
 
(14.8
)
 
 

 
(1.4
)
 
(9.2
)
 
 

Total loss and loss expenses ratio
 
88.0
 %
 
80.3
 %
 
 

 
84.7
 %
 
79.4
 %
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Surety and executive risk:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Written premiums
 
$
34

 
$
31

 
10

 
$
93

 
$
87

 
7

Earned premiums
 
30

 
28

 
7

 
89

 
82

 
9

Current accident year before catastrophe losses
 
57.1
 %
 
60.4
 %
 
 

 
54.0
 %
 
60.7
 %
 
 

Current accident year catastrophe losses
 

 

 
 

 

 

 
 

Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
 
(16.3
)
 
(17.2
)
 
 

 
15.9

 
8.9

 
 

Prior accident years catastrophe losses
 

 

 
 

 

 

 
 

Total loss and loss expenses ratio
 
40.8
 %
 
43.2
 %
 
 

 
69.9
 %
 
69.6
 %
 
 

Machinery and equipment:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Written premiums
 
$
13

 
$
12

 
8

 
$
35

 
$
31

 
13

Earned premiums
 
11

 
10

 
10

 
32

 
29

 
10

Current accident year before catastrophe losses
 
26.7
 %
 
19.9
 %
 
 

 
29.2
 %
 
26.4
 %
 
 

Current accident year catastrophe losses
 

 

 
 

 

 

 
 

Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
 
(1.1
)
 
(3.9
)
 
 

 
0.6

 
(1.1
)
 
 

Prior accident years catastrophe losses
 

 

 
 

 

 

 
 

Total loss and loss expenses ratio
 
25.6
 %
 
16.0
 %
 
 

 
29.8
 %
 
25.3
 %
 
 


As discussed above, the loss and loss expenses ratio component of the combined ratio is an important measure of underwriting profit and performance. Catastrophe losses are volatile and can distort short-term profitability trends, particularly for certain lines of business. Development of loss and loss expense reserves on prior accident years can also distort trends in measures of profitability for recently written business. To illustrate these effects, we separate their impact on the ratios shown in the table above. For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2013, the commercial line of business with the most significant profitability challenge was specialty packages. On 10-K Page 65, we noted that specialty package results were expected to improve over time due to efforts to improve pricing precision in addition to various initiatives related to the property coverage portion of this line of business. Those underwriting actions and the introduction of CinciPakTM – a new program designed to replace many of our specialty products – are partly responsible for a 4 percent decrease in specialty packages net written premiums for the first nine months of 2013, compared with the same period of 2012, despite the effects of higher average renewal prices on retained policies.


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 45



PERSONAL LINES INSURANCE RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
 
(Dollars in millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
Earned premiums
 
$
244

 
$
219

 
11

 
$
712

 
$
642

 
11

Fee revenues
 

 
1

 
(100
)
 
1

 
2

 
(50
)
Total revenues
 
244

 
220

 
11

 
713

 
644

 
11

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and loss expenses from:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Current accident year before catastrophe losses
 
154

 
155

 
(1
)
 
439

 
457

 
(4
)
Current accident year catastrophe losses
 
22

 
28

 
(21
)
 
66

 
149

 
(56
)
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
 
(15
)
 
(25
)
 
40

 
(32
)
 
(49
)
 
35

Prior accident years catastrophe losses
 
(6
)
 
(6
)
 
0

 
(11
)
 
(21
)
 
48

Loss and loss expenses
 
155

 
152

 
2

 
462

 
536

 
(14
)
Underwriting expenses
 
75

 
80

 
(6
)
 
218

 
197

 
11

Underwriting profit (loss)
 
$
14

 
$
(12
)
 
nm

 
$
33

 
$
(89
)
 
nm

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:
 
 
 
 
 
Pt. Change
 
 
 
 
 
Pt. Change
Current accident year before catastrophe losses
 
63.0
 %
 
70.5
 %
 
(7.5
)
 
61.5
 %
 
71.3
 %
 
(9.8
)
Current accident year catastrophe losses
 
9.1

 
12.5

 
(3.4
)
 
9.2

 
23.2

 
(14.0
)
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
 
(6.3
)
 
(11.2
)
 
4.9

 
(4.4
)
 
(7.6
)
 
3.2

Prior accident years catastrophe losses
 
(2.1
)
 
(2.3
)
 
0.2

 
(1.5
)
 
(3.3
)
 
1.8

Loss and loss expenses
 
63.7

 
69.5

 
(5.8
)
 
64.8

 
83.6

 
(18.8
)
Underwriting expenses
 
30.8

 
36.2

 
(5.4
)
 
30.7

 
30.6

 
0.1

Combined ratio
 
94.5
 %
 
105.7
 %
 
(11.2
)
 
95.5
 %
 
114.2
 %
 
(18.7
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Combined ratio
 
94.5
 %
 
105.7
 %
 
(11.2
)
 
95.5
 %
 
114.2
 %
 
(18.7
)
Contribution from catastrophe losses and prior
   years reserve development
 
0.7

 
(1.0
)
 
1.7

 
3.3

 
12.3

 
(9.0
)
Combined ratio before catastrophe losses and
   prior years reserve development
 
93.8
 %
 
106.7
 %
 
(12.9
)
 
92.2
 %
 
101.9
 %
 
(9.7
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Overview
 
Performance highlights for the personal lines segment include:
 
Premiums – Personal lines earned premiums and net written premiums for the third quarter and first nine months of 2013 continued to grow primarily due to higher renewal premiums. The increase reflected improved pricing and a steady, high level of policy retention. The premiums table below analyzes the primary components of earned premiums.

Agency renewal written premiums increased 12 percent for the third quarter and 11 percent for the first nine months of 2013 because of rate increases in recent years, ongoing high levels of policy retention, premium growth initiatives and a higher level of insured exposures. Rate increases that we began implementing in October 2012 for the homeowner line of business have averaged approximately 9 percent, with some individual policy rate increases lower or higher based on risk characteristics of the insured exposure. We are in the process of implementing another round of homeowner rate changes with average increase levels similar to those implemented in late 2012 and in the first three quarters of 2013. Those rate changes for approximately half of the states where we market homeowner policies are being implemented beginning in the fourth quarter of 2013.

In the first half of the year, we began implementing 2013 rate changes for our personal auto line of business in the majority of the 30 states where we market personal auto policies. The average rate change was an increase in the low-single-digit range, with some individual policies experiencing lower or higher rate changes based on

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 46



enhanced pricing precision enabled by predictive models. Rate changes for personal auto beginning in late 2010 and 2011 also represented an average rate increase in the low-single-digit range.

Personal lines new business written premiums grew slightly during the first nine months of 2013, up 2 percent compared with the first nine months of 2012. Growth slowed during the second quarter and declined for the third quarter of 2013 as expected due to underwriting actions such as expanded use of actual cash value loss settlement for older roofs. For the majority of states where we market personal lines policies, those underwriting actions were effective beginning April 1, 2013.

Other written premiums – which primarily include premiums ceded to our reinsurers as part of our reinsurance program – had a minimal effect on 2013 net written premium growth because they totaled similar amounts for the three- and nine-month periods, respectively, compared with the same periods of 2012.

We continue to implement strategies discussed in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1, Strategic Initiatives, Page 10, to enhance our responsiveness to marketplace changes and to help achieve our long-term objectives for personal lines growth and profitability. These strategies include several initiatives to more profitably underwrite property coverages.
 
Personal Lines Insurance Premiums
 
(Dollars in millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
Agency renewal written premiums
 
$
258

 
$
231

 
12

 
$
704

 
$
633

 
11

Agency new business written premiums
 
28

 
31

 
(10
)
 
86

 
84

 
2

Other written premiums
 
(8
)
 
(9
)
 
11

 
(24
)
 
(21
)
 
(14
)
Net written premiums
 
278

 
253

 
10

 
766

 
696

 
10

Unearned premium change
 
(34
)
 
(34
)
 
0

 
(54
)
 
(54
)
 
0

Earned premiums
 
$
244

 
$
219

 
11

 
$
712

 
$
642

 
11

 
Combined ratio – The personal lines combined ratio improved for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2013, compared with the same periods of 2012, largely due to weather-related catastrophe losses that were 3.3 and 12.2 percentage points lower. The third-quarter 2013 ratio also benefited from a 5.4 point reduction in the underwriting expense ratio.

Catastrophe losses accounted for 7.0 and 7.7 percentage points of the combined ratio for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2013, compared with 10.2 and 19.9 percentage points for the same periods last year. The 10-year annual average catastrophe loss ratio through 2012 for the personal lines segment was 11.4 percentage points, and the five-year annual average was 15.6 percentage points.
 
The ratio for current accident year loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses for the nine months ended September 30, 2013, also improved compared with the same 2012 period. The 61.5 percent ratio for the first nine months of 2013 improved 9.8 percentage points compared with the 71.3 percent accident year 2012 ratio measured as of September 30, 2012. This improvement largely reflected higher rates in addition to recent-year initiatives to improve pricing precision and risk selection. Lower new large losses incurred, shown in the table below, contributed 2.7 percentage points to the 2013 ratio improvement.
 
In addition to the rate increases discussed above, we continue to refine our pricing to better match premiums to the risk of loss on individual policies. The results of improved pricing per risk and broad-based rate increases are expected to help position the combined ratio at a profitable level over the long term. In addition, greater geographic diversification is expected over time to reduce the volatility of homeowner loss ratios attributable to weather-related catastrophe losses.
 
Personal lines reserve development on prior accident years continued to emerge favorably during the third quarter and first nine months of 2013. Favorable reserve development was $27 million lower for the first nine months of 2013 compared with the same period of 2012, with catastrophe loss development contributing $10 million of the decrease. Approximately half of the $43 million of favorable reserve development on prior

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 47



accident years recognized during the first nine months of 2013 occurred in the homeowner line of business and approximately 40 percent occurred in the other personal line of business, reflecting lower than anticipated loss emergence on known claims. Approximately two-thirds of the personal lines favorable reserve development recognized during the first nine months of 2013 was for accident year 2012 and approximately one-quarter was for accident year 2011, with all other accident years netting to 5 percent. Reserve estimates are inherently uncertain as described in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Property Casualty Insurance Loss and Loss Expense Reserves, Page 43.
 
The underwriting expense ratio decreased for the third quarter of 2013 compared with the 2012 third quarter, as the 2012 period included higher costs for various assigned risk insurance pools. The nine-month 2013 ratio was essentially unchanged from a year ago.
 
Personal Lines Insurance Losses by Size
 
(Dollars in millions, net of reinsurance)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
New losses greater than $4,000,000
 
$

 
$

 
nm

 
$

 
$

 
nm

New losses $1,000,000-$4,000,000
 
14

 
9

 
56

 
20

 
27

 
(26
)
New losses $250,000-$1,000,000
 
14

 
14

 

 
35

 
40

 
(13
)
Case reserve development above $250,000
 
6

 
1

 
500

 
16

 
6

 
167

Total large losses incurred
 
34

 
24

 
42

 
71

 
73

 
(3
)
Other losses excluding catastrophe losses
 
81

 
91

 
(11
)
 
275

 
283

 
(3
)
Catastrophe losses
 
17

 
18

 
(6
)
 
54

 
123

 
(56
)
Total losses incurred
 
$
132

 
$
133

 
(1
)
 
$
400

 
$
479

 
(16
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:
 
 
 
 
 
Pt. Change
 
 
 
 
 
Pt. Change
   New losses greater than $4,000,000
 
0.0
%
 
0.0
%
 
0.0

 
0.0
%
 
0.0
%
 
0.0

   New losses $1,000,000-$4,000,000
 
5.6

 
3.7

 
1.9

 
2.7

 
4.1

 
(1.4
)
   New losses $250,000-$1,000,000
 
5.5

 
6.1

 
(0.6
)
 
4.9

 
6.2

 
(1.3
)
   Case reserve development above $250,000
 
3.0

 
0.5

 
2.5

 
2.3

 
0.9

 
1.4

Total large losses incurred
 
14.1

 
10.3

 
3.8

 
9.9

 
11.2

 
(1.3
)
   Other losses excluding catastrophe losses
 
33.2

 
41.6

 
(8.4
)
 
38.6

 
44.1

 
(5.5
)
   Catastrophe losses
 
6.7

 
8.8

 
(2.1
)
 
7.5

 
19.3

 
(11.8
)
Total loss ratio
 
54.0
%
 
60.7
%
 
(6.7
)
 
56.0
%
 
74.6
%
 
(18.6
)

We continue to monitor new losses and case reserve increases greater than $250,000 for trends in factors such as initial reserve levels, loss cost inflation and claim settlement expenses. Our analysis continues to indicate no unexpected concentration of these large losses and case reserve increases by risk category, geographic region, policy inception, agency or field marketing territory. In the third quarter of 2013, the personal lines total ratio for these losses and case reserve increases, net of reinsurance, was 3.8 percentage points higher compared with last year’s third quarter, reflecting a higher number of personal auto claims and incurred losses. Personal auto large losses incurred increased for the first quarter of 2013 but decreased for the second quarter, both compared with the same periods of 2012, and increased $13 million or 47 percent for the first nine months of 2013. The third-quarter 2013 amount of personal lines total large losses incurred partially offset improvement in the nine-month 2013 total large loss ratio, compared with 2012, as the first-half 2013 ratio was 3.9 percentage points lower than the first-half 2012 ratio. We believe results for the three-month and nine-month periods largely reflected normal fluctuations in loss patterns and normal variability in large case reserves for claims above $250,000.
 


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 48



Personal Lines of Business Analysis
 
We prefer to write personal lines coverages on an account basis to include both auto and homeowner coverages as well as coverages from the other personal business line. As a result, we believe that our personal lines business is best measured and evaluated on a segment basis. However, we provide line of business data to summarize premium and loss trends separately for each line. The ratios shown in the table below are components of loss and loss expenses as a percentage of earned premiums.
 
(Dollars in millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
Personal auto:
 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 

 
 

 
 
Written premiums
 
$
128

 
$
117

 
9
 
$
353

 
$
323

 
9
Earned premiums
 
112

 
101

 
11
 
328

 
299

 
10
Current accident year before catastrophe losses
 
71.7
 %
 
68.2
 %
 
 
 
74.7
 %
 
73.2
 %
 
 
Current accident year catastrophe losses
 
1.3

 
(3.1
)
 
 
 
1.4

 
3.9

 
 
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
 
(0.4
)
 
(5.2
)
 
 
 
(0.9
)
 
(6.0
)
 
 
Prior accident years catastrophe losses
 
(0.4
)
 
(0.3
)
 
 
 
(0.4
)
 
(0.6
)
 
 
Total loss and loss expenses ratio
 
72.2
 %
 
59.6
 %
 
 
 
74.8
 %
 
70.5
 %
 
 
Homeowner:
 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 

 
 

 
 
Written premiums
 
$
118

 
$
105

 
12
 
$
323

 
$
285

 
13
Earned premiums
 
103

 
90

 
14
 
298

 
261

 
14
Current accident year before catastrophe losses
 
55.2
 %
 
80.7
 %
 
 
 
48.9
 %
 
72.8
 %
 
 
Current accident year catastrophe losses
 
18.7

 
28.1

 
 
 
19.5

 
48.9

 
 
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
 
(3.2
)
 
(11.9
)
 
 
 
(3.8
)
 
(7.1
)
 
 
Prior accident years catastrophe losses
 
(4.2
)
 
(4.9
)
 
 
 
(2.9
)
 
(6.8
)
 
 
Total loss and loss expenses ratio
 
66.5
 %
 
92.0
 %
 
 
 
61.7
 %
 
107.8
 %
 
 
Other personal:
 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 

 
 

 
 
Written premiums
 
$
32

 
$
31

 
3
 
$
90

 
$
88

 
2
Earned premiums
 
29

 
28

 
4
 
86

 
82

 
5
Current accident year before catastrophe losses
 
56.3
 %
 
46.2
 %
 
 
 
55.2
 %
 
59.2
 %
 
 
Current accident year catastrophe losses
 
5.5

 
18.4

 
 
 
3.8

 
12.1

 
 
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
 
(39.8
)
 
(30.4
)
 
 
 
(19.9
)
 
(15.5
)
 
 
Prior accident years catastrophe losses
 
(1.6
)
 
(1.2
)
 
 
 
(1.3
)
 
(1.8
)
 
 
Total loss and loss expenses ratio
 
20.4
 %
 
33.0
 %
 
 
 
37.8
 %
 
54.0
 %
 
 
 
As discussed above, the loss and loss expenses ratio component of the combined ratio is an important measure of underwriting profit and performance. Catastrophe losses are volatile and can distort short-term profitability trends, particularly for certain lines of business. Development of loss and loss expense reserves on prior accident years can also distort trends in measures of profitability for recently written business. To illustrate these effects, we separate their impact on the ratios shown in the table above. For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2013, the personal line of business with the most significant profitability challenge was personal auto, largely due to large losses that fluctuate over time as discussed above. As discussed in Personal Lines Insurance Results of Operations, Overview, we continue actions to improve pricing per risk and overall rates, which are expected to improve future profitability. 


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 49



EXCESS AND SURPLUS LINES INSURANCE RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
 
(Dollars in millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
Earned premiums
 
$
30

 
$
25

 
20

 
$
85

 
$
68

 
25

Loss and loss expenses from:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Current accident year before catastrophe losses
 
20

 
22

 
(9
)
 
58

 
55

 
5

Current accident year catastrophe losses
 
1

 

 
nm

 
1

 
1

 
0

Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
 
(4
)
 
(1
)
 
(300
)
 
(6
)
 
(1
)
 
(500
)
Prior accident years catastrophe losses
 

 

 
nm

 

 

 
nm

Loss and loss expenses
 
17

 
21

 
(19
)
 
53

 
55

 
(4
)
Underwriting expenses
 
9

 
7

 
29

 
27

 
21

 
29

Underwriting profit (loss)
 
$
4

 
$
(3
)
 
nm

 
$
5

 
$
(8
)
 
nm

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:
 
 
 
 
 
Pt. Change
 
 
 
 
 
Pt. Change
Current accident year before catastrophe losses
 
67.2
 %
 
87.5
 %
 
(20.3
)
 
68.7
 %
 
80.4
 %
 
(11.7
)
Current accident year catastrophe losses
 
3.4

 
1.4

 
2.0

 
1.6

 
2.3

 
(0.7
)
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
 
(13.7
)
 
(6.0
)
 
(7.7
)
 
(7.9
)
 
(2.0
)
 
(5.9
)
Prior accident years catastrophe losses
 
(0.9
)
 
(0.7
)
 
(0.2
)
 
0.1

 
0.2

 
(0.1
)
Loss and loss expenses
 
56.0

 
82.2

 
(26.2
)
 
62.5

 
80.9

 
(18.4
)
Underwriting expenses
 
30.7

 
29.3

 
1.4

 
31.7

 
31.0

 
0.7

Combined ratio
 
86.7
 %
 
111.5
 %
 
(24.8
)
 
94.2
 %
 
111.9
 %
 
(17.7
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Combined ratio
 
86.7
 %
 
111.5
 %
 
(24.8
)
 
94.2
 %
 
111.9
 %
 
(17.7
)
Contribution from catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development
 
(11.2
)
 
(5.3
)
 
(5.9
)
 
(6.2
)
 
0.5

 
(6.7
)
Combined ratio before catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development
 
97.9
 %
 
116.8
 %
 
(18.9
)
 
100.4
 %
 
111.4
 %
 
(11.0
)
 
 Overview
 
Performance highlights for the excess and surplus lines segment include:
 
Premiums – Excess and surplus lines earned premiums and net written premiums continued to grow during the third quarter and first nine months of 2013. Growth in renewal written premiums contributed most of the increase.

Renewal written premiums rose 32 percent and 30 percent for the third quarter and first nine months of 2013, compared with the same periods of 2012, reflecting the opportunity to renew many accounts for the first time as well as higher renewal pricing. We experienced renewal pricing increases estimated for our excess and surplus lines policies on average in a high-single-digit range, down slightly from the first half of 2013. September 2013 was the 37th consecutive month of positive average price changes for this segment of our property casualty business. Successive annual policy renewals with price increases, plus strong competition in recent months that included activity by standard market insurance companies competing for business written in the excess and surplus lines market, had a dampening effect on the rate of increase in pricing for this segment. We measure average changes in excess and surplus lines renewal pricing as the rate of change in renewal premium for the new policy period compared with the premium for the expiring policy period, assuming no change in the level of insured exposures or policy coverage between those periods for respective policies.
 
New business written premiums rose for the third quarter and first nine months of 2013, compared with the same periods of 2012. The increase reflects the addition of five excess and surplus lines field marketing representatives since April 2013, an increase of 50 percent compared with the staffing level at year-end 2012. Some of what we report as new business came from accounts that were not new to our agents. We believe our agents’ seasoned accounts tend to be priced more accurately than business that may be less familiar to them.
 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 50



Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance Premiums
 
(Dollars in millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
Agency renewal written premiums
 
$
25

 
$
19

 
32

 
$
70

 
$
54

 
30

Agency new business written premiums
 
11

 
9

 
22

 
30

 
29

 
3

Other written premiums
 
(2
)
 
(1
)
 
(100
)
 
(6
)
 
(5
)
 
(20
)
Net written premiums
 
34

 
27

 
26

 
94

 
78

 
21

Unearned premium change
 
(4
)
 
(2
)
 
(100
)
 
(9
)
 
(10
)
 
10

Earned premiums
 
$
30

 
$
25

 
20

 
$
85

 
$
68

 
25

 
Combined ratio – The excess and surplus lines combined ratio improved for the third quarter and first nine months of 2013 by 24.8 and 17.7 percentage points compared with the same periods of 2012, primarily due to lower current accident year loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses, which reflected higher pricing and typical variability from new losses incurred of $250,000 or more.

The 68.7 percent ratio for current accident year loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses for the first nine months of 2013 improved 11.7 percentage points compared with the 80.4 percent accident year 2012 ratio measured as of September 30, 2012. This decrease reflects higher pricing and new losses incurred of $250,000 or more that improved by 5.0 points for the first nine months of 2013, compared with 2012, as shown in the Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance Losses by Size table below.
 
Catastrophe losses accounted for 2.5 and 1.7 percentage points of the combined ratio for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2013, compared with 0.7 and 2.5 percentage points for the same periods of 2012.
 
Excess and surplus lines net favorable reserve development on prior accident years as a ratio to earned premiums was 14.6 percentage points for the third quarter and 7.8 percentage points for the first nine months of 2013, compared with 6.7 and 1.8 percentage points for the same periods of 2012. The favorable reserve development recognized during the first nine months of 2013 for excess and surplus lines included approximately 95 percent for accident year 2012, and related primarily to lower than anticipated loss emergence on known claims. Reserve estimates are inherently uncertain as described in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Property Casualty Insurance Loss and Loss Expense Reserves, Page 43.
 
The underwriting expense ratio for the third quarter and first nine months of 2013 increased compared with the same periods of 2012, primarily due to higher commissions.

 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 51



Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance Losses by Size
 
(Dollars in millions, net of reinsurance)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
New losses greater than $4,000,000
 
$

 
$

 
nm

 
$

 
$

 
nm

New losses $1,000,000-$4,000,000
 
1

 
1

 

 
4

 
4

 

New losses $250,000-$1,000,000
 
2

 
3

 
(33
)
 
11

 
11

 

Case reserve development above $250,000
 
2

 
2

 

 
2

 
5

 
(60
)
Total large losses incurred
 
5

 
6

 
(17
)
 
17

 
20

 
(15
)
Other losses excluding catastrophe losses
 
8

 
9

 
(11
)
 
22

 
21

 
5

Catastrophe losses
 

 

 
nm

 
1

 
2

 
(50
)
Total losses incurred
 
$
13

 
$
15

 
(13
)
 
$
40

 
$
43

 
(7
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:
 
 
 
 
 
Pt. Change
 
 
 
 
 
Pt. Change
   New losses greater than $4,000,000
 
0.0
%
 
0.0
%
 
0.0

 
0.0
%
 
0.0
%
 
0.0

   New losses $1,000,000-$4,000,000
 
3.6

 
4.3

 
(0.7
)
 
5.2

 
6.5

 
(1.3
)
   New losses $250,000-$1,000,000
 
7.3

 
15.0

 
(7.7
)
 
12.6

 
16.3

 
(3.7
)
   Case reserve development above $250,000
 
4.5

 
8.8

 
(4.3
)
 
2.2

 
7.0

 
(4.8
)
Total large losses incurred
 
15.4

 
28.1

 
(12.7
)
 
20.0

 
29.8

 
(9.8
)
   Other losses excluding catastrophe losses
 
25.7

 
35.9

 
(10.2
)
 
25.9

 
31.1

 
(5.2
)
   Catastrophe losses
 
2.4

 
0.5

 
1.9

 
1.6

 
2.4

 
(0.8
)
Total loss ratio
 
43.5
%
 
64.5
%
 
(21.0
)
 
47.5
%
 
63.3
%
 
(15.8
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

We continue to monitor new losses and case reserve increases greater than $250,000 for trends in factors such as initial reserve levels, loss cost inflation and claim settlement expenses. Our analysis continues to indicate no unexpected concentration of these large losses and case reserve increases by risk category, geographic region, policy inception, agency or field marketing territory. In the third quarter of 2013, the excess and surplus line total ratio for these losses and case reserve increases, net of reinsurance, was 12.7 percentage points lower compared with last year’s third quarter, largely due to a lower frequency of large losses. Third-quarter 2013 total large losses incurred that were lower than the average for the first two quarters helped lower the nine-month 2013 ratio for total large losses incurred. The 20.0 percent ratio for total large losses incurred for the first nine months of 2013 was lower than the full-year 2012 ratio of 25.5 percent. We believe results for the three-month period ended September 30, 2013, largely reflected normal fluctuations in loss patterns and normal variability in large case reserves for claims above $250,000.
 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 52





LIFE INSURANCE RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
 
(In millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
Earned premiums
 
$
38

 
$
38

 
0

 
$
124

 
$
130

 
(5
)
Separate account investment management fees
 
1

 
1

 
0

 
3

 
1

 
200

Total revenues
 
39

 
39

 
0

 
127

 
131

 
(3
)
Contract holders' benefits incurred
 
49

 
46

 
7

 
141

 
136

 
4

Investment interest credited to contract holders
 
(21
)
 
(21
)
 
0

 
(60
)
 
(62
)
 
3

Operating expenses incurred
 
11

 
14

 
(21
)
 
36

 
59

 
(39
)
Total benefits and expenses
 
39

 
39

 
0

 
117

 
133

 
(12
)
Life insurance segment profit (loss)
 
$

 
$

 
nm

 
$
10

 
$
(2
)
 
nm

 
Overview
 
Performance highlights for the life insurance segment include:
 
Revenues – Revenues decreased for the nine months ended September 30, 2013, primarily due to lower earned premiums from universal life insurance products. The unlocking of interest rate assumptions for our universal life contracts during the third quarter of 2013 and 2012 slowed the nine-month amortization of unearned front-end loads, reducing universal life earned premiums.

Net in-force life insurance policy face amounts increased to $47.374 billion at September 30, 2013, from $45.126 billion at year-end 2012.
 
Fixed annuity deposits received for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2013, were $8 million and $29 million compared with $12 million and $42 million for the same periods of 2012. Fixed annuity deposits have a minimal impact to earned premiums because deposits received are initially recorded as liabilities. Profit is earned over time by way of interest rate spreads. We do not write variable or equity annuities and are currently de-emphasizing fixed annuity sales due to the low interest rate environment.
 
Life Insurance Premiums
 
(Dollars in millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,

 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
Term life insurance
 
$
32

 
$
29

 
10
 
$
92

 
$
86

 
7

Universal life insurance
 
(1
)
 
2

 
nm
 
8

 
22

 
(64
)
Other life insurance, annuity and disability
  income products
 
7

 
7

 
0
 
24

 
22

 
9

Net earned premiums
 
$
38

 
$
38

 
0
 
$
124

 
$
130

 
(5
)
 
Profitability – Our life insurance segment typically reports a small profit or loss on a GAAP basis because profits from investment income spreads are included in our investment segment results. We include only investment income credited to contract holders (including interest assumed in life insurance policy reserve calculations) in our life insurance segment results. A gain of $10 million for our life insurance segment in the first nine months of 2013 compared with a loss of $2 million for the same period of 2012, primarily due to favorable mortality experience and decreased operating expenses.


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 53



Although we report most of our life insurance company investment income in our investments segment results, we recognize that assets under management, capital appreciation and investment income are integral to evaluation of the success of the life insurance segment because of the long duration of life products. On a basis that includes investment income and realized gains or losses from life insurance related invested assets, the life insurance company reported a net profit of $10 million and $38 million in the three and nine months ended September 30, 2013, compared with a net profit of $11 million and $29 million for the same periods of 2012. The life insurance company portfolio had after-tax realized investment gains of $1 million and $3 million for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2013, compared with after-tax realized investment gains of $2 million and $3 million for the same periods of 2012.
 
Life segment benefits and expenses consist principally of contract holders’ (policyholders’) benefits incurred related to traditional life and interest-sensitive products and operating expenses incurred, net of deferred acquisition costs. Total benefits increased modestly in the first nine months of 2013. Through the first nine months, mortality results were better than projected and were well within our pricing expectations.

Operating expenses for the first nine months of 2013 decreased compared with the same period a year ago. Unlocking of interest rate assumptions, discussed in the revenues section above, also increased the amount of expenses deferred to future periods, reducing operating expenses for the third quarter and first nine months of 2013. For the comparable periods in 2012, unlocking decreased the amount of expenses deferred to future periods, increasing operating expenses. The earnings effect of interest rate unlocking, for the respective first nine-month periods of 2013 and 2012, is minimal because the change in earned premiums is essentially offset by the change in operating expenses. During the first nine months of 2012, operating expenses were further increased by an actuarial adjustment decreasing reinsurance-related expenses deferred to future periods.
 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 54





INVESTMENT RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
 
Overview
 
The investments segment contributes investment income and realized gains and losses to results of operations. Investments traditionally are our primary source of pretax and after-tax profits.
 
Investment Income
 
Pretax investment income increased 1 percent for the third quarter of 2013 and decreased 1 percent for the nine months ended September 30, 2013, both compared with the same periods of 2012. Interest income declined due to the continuing effects of the low interest rate environment. Higher dividend income for the three-month and nine‑month periods reflected rising dividend rates and net purchases of securities. Nine-month 2013 dividend growth was partially offset by certain holdings that accelerated payments from the first quarter into the fourth quarter of 2012 in response to anticipated tax law changes. Average yields in the table below are based on the average invested asset and cash amounts indicated in the table, using fixed-maturity securities valued at amortized cost and all other securities at fair value. In our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1, Investments Segment, Page 20, and Item 7, Investments Outlook, Page 83, we discussed our portfolio strategies. We discuss risks related to our investment income and our fixed-maturity and equity investment portfolios in this quarterly report Item 3, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.
 
We continue to position our portfolio with consideration to both the challenges presented by the current low interest rate environment and the risks presented by potential future inflation. As bonds in our generally laddered portfolio mature or are called over the near term, we will be challenged to replace their current yield. Approximately 16.2 percent of our fixed-maturity investments mature during October 2013 through December 2015 with an average pretax yield-to-amortized cost of 4.6 percent, including 1.6 percent of the portfolio maturing during the last three months of 2013 and yielding 4.4 percent. While our bond portfolio more than covers our insurance reserve liabilities, we believe our diversified common stock portfolio of mainly blue chip, dividend-paying companies represents one of our best investment opportunities for the long term.
 
Investment Results
 
(In millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,

 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
Total investment income, net of expenses, pretax
 
$
133

 
$
132

 
1
 
$
392

 
$
395

 
(1
)
Investment interest credited to contract holders
 
(21
)
 
(21
)
 
0
 
(60
)
 
(62
)
 
3

Realized investment gains and losses summary:
 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 

 
 

 
 

Realized investment gains and losses
 
22

 
16

 
38
 
78

 
60

 
30

Change in fair value of securities with
  embedded derivatives
 

 
(4
)
 
100
 
1

 
1

 
0

Other-than-temporary impairment charges
 

 
(2
)
 
100
 
(2
)
 
(32
)
 
94

Total realized investment gains and losses
 
22

 
10

 
120
 
77

 
29

 
166

Investment operations profit
 
$
134

 
$
121

 
11
 
$
409

 
$
362

 
13

 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 55



(In millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
Investment income:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Interest
 
$
104

 
$
105

 
(1
)
 
$
309

 
$
317

 
(3
)
Dividends
 
30

 
28

 
7

 
87

 
81

 
7

Other
 
1

 
1

 
0

 
2

 
3

 
(33
)
Investment expenses
 
(2
)
 
(2
)
 
0

 
(6
)
 
(6
)
 
0

Total investment income, net of expenses,
  pretax
 
133

 
132

 
1

 
392

 
395

 
(1
)
Income taxes
 
(32
)
 
(32
)
 
0

 
(95
)
 
(96
)
 
1

Total net investment income
 
$
101

 
$
100

 
1

 
$
297

 
$
299

 
(1
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Effective tax rate
 
24.1
%
 
24.4
%
 
 

 
24.2
%
 
24.4
%
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Average invested assets plus cash and cash
  equivalents
 
$
12,908

 
$
11,894

 
 

 
$
12,607

 
$
11,805

 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Average yield pretax
 
4.12
%
 
4.44
%
 
 

 
4.15
%
 
4.46
%
 
 

Average yield after-tax
 
3.13

 
3.36

 
 

 
3.14

 
3.38

 
 

Effective fixed-maturity tax rate
 
27.2

 
27.0

 
 

 
27.1

 
26.9

 
 

Effective fixed-maturity at amortized cost
 
$
8,465

 
$
8,243

 
 

 
$
8,362

 
$
8,159

 
 

Average fixed-maturity yield pretax
 
4.91
%
 
5.10
%
 
 

 
4.93
%
 
5.18
%
 
 

Average fixed-maturity yield after-tax
 
3.58

 
3.72

 
 

 
3.59

 
3.79

 
 

 

Net Realized Gains and Losses
 
We reported net realized investment gains of $22 million and $77 million in the three and nine months ended September 30, 2013, as net gains from investment sales and bond calls were partially offset by other-than-temporary impairment (OTTI) charges. OTTI charges during the nine-month period ended September 30, 2013, were $2 million. For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2012, we reported net realized investment gains of $10 million and $29 million, as net gains from investment sales and bond calls offset OTTI charges.
 
Investment gains or losses are recognized upon the sales of investments or as otherwise required under GAAP. The timing of realized gains or losses from sales can have a material effect on results in any quarter. However, such gains or losses usually have little, if any, effect on total shareholders’ equity because most equity and fixed-maturity investments are carried at fair value, with the unrealized gain or loss included as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income. Accounting requirements for OTTI charges for the fixed-maturity portfolio are disclosed in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 1, Summary of Significant Accounting Policies, Page 115.
 
The total net realized investment gains for the first nine months of 2013 included:
 
$64 million in net gains from the sale of various common and preferred stock holdings
$9 million in net gains from fixed-maturity security sales and calls
$6 million in other net realized gains, including $1 million in gains from changes in fair value of securities with embedded derivatives
$2 million in OTTI charges to write down five fixed-maturity securities
 
Of the 2,843 securities in the portfolio, no securities were trading below 70 percent of amortized cost at September 30, 2013. Our asset impairment committee regularly monitors the portfolio, including a quarterly review of the entire portfolio for potential OTTI charges. We believe that if the improving liquidity in the markets were to reverse or the economic recovery were to significantly stall, we could experience declines in portfolio values and possibly additional OTTI charges.
 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 56



The table below provides additional detail for OTTI charges.
 
(In millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
2013
 
2012
Fixed maturities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Utilities
 
$

 
$

 
$
1

 
$

Municipal
 

 

 
1

 

Total fixed maturities
 

 

 
2

 

Common equities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Energy
 

 
1

 

 
2

Industrial
 

 

 

 
8

Consumer discretionary
 

 

 

 
14

Material
 

 

 

 
7

Healthcare
 

 
1

 

 
1

Total common equities
 

 
2

 

 
32

Total
 
$

 
$
2

 
$
2

 
$
32

 

OTHER
 
We report as Other the noninvestment operations of the parent company and a noninsurer subsidiary, CFC Investment Company. Losses before income taxes for Other were largely driven by interest expense from debt of the parent company.
 
(In millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
Interest and fees on loans and leases
 
$
2

 
$
2

 
0

 
$
5

 
$
6

 
(17
)
Other revenues
 
1

 

 
nm

 
2

 
1

 
100

Total revenues
 
3

 
2

 
50

 
7

 
7

 
0

Interest expense
 
13

 
14

 
(7
)
 
40

 
41

 
(2
)
Operating expenses
 
3

 
2

 
50

 
12

 
10

 
20

Total expenses
 
16

 
16

 
0

 
52

 
51

 
2

Other loss
 
$
(13
)
 
$
(14
)
 
7

 
$
(45
)
 
$
(44
)
 
(2
)
 
TAXES
 
We had $51 million and $152 million of income tax expense for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2013, compared with income tax expense of $41 million and $64 million for the same periods of 2012. The effective tax rate for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2013, was 28.0 percent and 27.8 percent compared with 27.0 percent and 21.8 percent for the same periods last year. The change in our effective tax rates was primarily due to changes in pretax income from underwriting results and realized investment gains and losses, with unchanged levels of permanent book-tax differences.
 
Historically, we have pursued a strategy of investing some portion of cash flow in tax-advantaged fixed-maturity and equity securities to minimize our overall tax liability and maximize after-tax earnings. See Tax-Exempt Fixed Maturities in this quarterly report Item 3, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk for further discussion on municipal bond purchases in our fixed-maturity investment portfolio. For our insurance subsidiaries, approximately 85 percent of income from tax-advantaged fixed-maturity investments is exempt from federal tax. Our noninsurance companies own an immaterial amount of tax-advantaged, fixed-maturity investments. For our insurance subsidiaries, the dividend received deduction, after the dividend proration of the 1986 Tax Reform Act, exempts approximately 60 percent of dividends from qualified equities from federal tax. For our noninsurance companies, the dividend received deduction exempts 70 percent of dividends from qualified equities. Details about

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 57



our effective tax rate are found in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 11, Income Taxes, Page 129, and in this quarterly report Item 1, Note 9 – Income Taxes.
 
LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
 
At September 30, 2013, shareholders’ equity was $5.816 billion compared with $5.453 billion at December 31, 2012. Total debt was $894 million at September 30, 2013, and at December 31, 2012. At September 30, 2013, cash and cash equivalents totaled $511 million compared with $487 million at December 31, 2012.

SOURCES OF LIQUIDITY
 
Subsidiary Dividends
 
Our lead insurance subsidiary declared dividends of $275 million to the parent company during the first nine months of 2013, $50 million more than the same period of 2012. Another subsidiary, CFC Investment Company, declared and paid dividends of $25 million to the parent company during the first nine months of 2013, in the first quarter, compared with none for full-year 2012. For the full-year 2012, subsidiary dividends declared totaled $300 million. State of Ohio regulatory requirements restrict the dividends our insurance subsidiary can pay. During 2013, total dividends that our insurance subsidiary could pay to our parent company without regulatory approval are approximately $391 million.
 
Investing Activities
 
Investment income is a source of liquidity for both the parent company and its insurance subsidiary. We continue to focus on portfolio strategies to balance near-term income generation and long-term book value growth.
 
Parent company obligations can be funded with income on investments held at the parent company level or through sales of securities in that portfolio, although we prefer to follow an investment philosophy seeking to compound cash flows over the long term. These sources of capital can help minimize subsidiary dividends to the parent company, protecting insurance subsidiary capital.

See our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1, Investment Segment, Page 20, for a discussion of our historic investment strategy, portfolio allocation and quality.
 
Insurance Underwriting
 
Our property casualty and life insurance underwriting operations provide liquidity because we generally receive premiums before paying losses under the policies purchased with those premiums. After satisfying our cash requirements, we use excess cash flows for investment, increasing future investment income.
 
Historically, cash receipts from property casualty and life insurance premiums, along with investment income, have been more than sufficient to pay claims, operating expenses and dividends to the parent company.
 
The table below shows a summary of operating cash flow for property casualty insurance (direct method):
 
(Dollars in millions)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
 
2013
 
2012
 
% Change
Premiums collected
 
$
1,017

 
$
884

 
15

 
$
2,950

 
$
2,604

 
13

Loss and loss expenses paid
 
(562
)
 
(593
)
 
5

 
(1,596
)
 
(1,672
)
 
5

Commissions and other underwriting expenses
  paid
 
(273
)
 
(260
)
 
(5
)
 
(907
)
 
(806
)
 
(13
)
Cash flow from underwriting
 
182

 
31

 
487

 
447

 
126

 
255

Investment income received
 
91

 
91

 
0

 
266

 
269

 
(1
)
Cash flow from operations
 
$
273

 
$
122

 
124

 
$
713

 
$
395

 
81

 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 58



Collected premiums for property casualty insurance rose $346 million during the first nine months of 2013, compared with the same period in 2012. Loss and loss expenses paid decreased $76 million, primarily due to lower catastrophe losses paid. Commissions and other underwriting expenses paid rose $101 million, primarily due to higher commissions paid to agencies, reflecting the increase in collected premiums.
 
We discuss our future obligations for claims payments and for underwriting expenses in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Contractual Obligations, Page 86, and Other Commitments, also on Page 86.
 
Capital Resources
 
At September 30, 2013, our debt-to-total-capital ratio was 13.3 percent, with $790 million in long-term debt and $104 million in borrowing on our revolving short-term line of credit. There was no change in the amount of the $104 million short-term debt during the first nine months of 2013. Based on our present capital requirements, we do not anticipate a material increase in debt levels during the remainder of 2013. As a result, we expect changes in our debt-to-total-capital ratio to continue to be largely a function of the contribution of unrealized investment gains or losses to shareholders’ equity.
 
We provide details of our three long-term notes in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 8, Long-Term Debt and Capital Lease Obligations, Page 127. None of the notes are encumbered by rating triggers.
 
Four independent ratings firms award insurer financial strength ratings to our property casualty insurance companies and three firms rate our life insurance company. Those firms made no changes to our debt ratings during the first nine months of 2013. Our debt ratings are discussed in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Liquidity and Capital Resources, Additional Sources of Liquidity, Page 84.
 
Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements
 
We do not use any special-purpose financing vehicles or have any undisclosed off-balance sheet arrangements (as that term is defined in applicable SEC rules) that are reasonably likely to have a current or future material effect on the company’s financial condition, results of operation, liquidity, capital expenditures or capital resources. Similarly, the company holds no fair-value contracts for which a lack of marketplace quotations would necessitate the use of fair-value techniques.
 
USES OF LIQUIDITY
 
Our parent company and insurance subsidiary have contractual obligations and other commitments. In addition, one of our primary uses of cash is to enhance shareholder return.
 
Contractual Obligations
 
In our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Contractual Obligations, Page 86, we estimated our future contractual obligations as of December 31, 2012. There have been no material changes to our estimates of future contractual obligations since our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K.

Other Commitments
 
In addition to our contractual obligations, we have other property casualty operational commitments.
 
Commissions – Commissions paid were $562 million in the first nine months of 2013. Commission payments generally track with written premiums, except for annual profit-sharing commissions typically paid during the first quarter of the year.
Other underwriting expenses – Many of our underwriting expenses are not contractual obligations, but reflect the ongoing expenses of our business. Noncommission underwriting expenses paid were $345 million in the first nine months of 2013.
In addition to contractual obligations for hardware and software, we anticipate capitalizing approximately $4 million in spending for key technology initiatives in 2013. Capitalized development costs related to key technology initiatives were $3 million in the first nine months of 2013. These activities are conducted at our discretion, and we have no material contractual obligations for activities planned as part of these projects.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 59




We contributed $15 million to our qualified pension plan during the first nine months of 2013. We do not anticipate further contributions to our qualified pension plan during the remainder of 2013.
 
Investing Activities
 
After fulfilling operating requirements, we invest cash flows from underwriting, investment and other corporate activities in fixed-maturity and equity securities on an ongoing basis to help achieve our portfolio objectives. We discuss our investment strategy and certain portfolio attributes in this quarterly report Item 3, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk.
 
Uses of Capital
 
Uses of cash to enhance shareholder return include dividends to shareholders. In February and April 2013, the board of directors declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of 40.75 cents per share. In August 2013, the regular quarterly cash dividend was declared at 42 cents per share for an indicated annual rate of $1.68 per share. During the first nine months of 2013, we used $195 million to pay cash dividends to shareholders.
 
 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 60



PROPERTY CASUALTY INSURANCE RESERVES
 
For the business lines in the commercial and personal lines insurance segments, and in total for the excess and surplus lines segment, the following table details gross reserves among case, IBNR and loss expense reserves, net of salvage and subrogation reserves. Reserving practices are discussed in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Property Casualty Insurance Loss and Loss Expense Obligations and Reserves, Page 88.
 
Total gross reserves at September 30, 2013, increased $69 million compared with December 31, 2012. Case reserves for losses increased $27 million while IBNR reserves increased by $53 million and total loss expense reserves decreased by $12 million.

Property and Casualty Gross Reserves
 
(In millions)
 
Loss reserves
 
Loss
 
Total
 
 
 
 
Case
 
IBNR
 
expense
 
gross
 
Percent
At September 30, 2013
 
reserves
 
reserves
 
reserves
 
reserves
 
of total
Commercial lines:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Commercial casualty
 
$
817

 
$
370

 
$
492

 
$
1,679

 
39.6
%
Commercial property
 
206

 
24

 
37

 
267

 
6.3

Commercial auto
 
259

 
39

 
68

 
366

 
8.6

Workers' compensation
 
413

 
517

 
91

 
1,021

 
24.1

Specialty packages
 
92

 
6

 
26

 
124

 
2.9

Surety and executive risk
 
138

 
11

 
70

 
219

 
5.2

Machinery and equipment
 

 
3

 
2

 
5

 
0.1

Subtotal
 
1,925

 
970

 
786

 
3,681

 
86.8

Personal lines:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Personal auto
 
172

 
(11
)
 
59

 
220

 
5.2

Homeowner
 
84

 
(5
)
 
25

 
104

 
2.5

Other personal
 
46

 
28

 
5

 
79

 
1.9

Subtotal
 
302

 
12

 
89

 
403

 
9.6

Excess and surplus lines
 
71

 
48

 
35

 
154

 
3.6

Total
 
$
2,298

 
$
1,030

 
$
910

 
$
4,238

 
100.0
%
At December 31, 2012
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Commercial lines:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Commercial casualty
 
$
816

 
$
348

 
$
503

 
$
1,667

 
40.0
%
Commercial property
 
197

 
22

 
38

 
257

 
6.2

Commercial auto
 
252

 
35

 
66

 
353

 
8.5

Workers' compensation
 
433

 
473

 
97

 
1,003

 
24.1

Specialty packages
 
129

 
3

 
27

 
159

 
3.8

Surety and executive risk
 
121

 
6

 
74

 
201

 
4.8

Machinery and equipment
 
1

 
2

 
2

 
5

 
0.1

Subtotal
 
1,949

 
889

 
807

 
3,645

 
87.5

Personal lines:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Personal auto
 
140

 
(10
)
 
53

 
183

 
4.4

Homeowner
 
81

 
21

 
27

 
129

 
3.1

Other personal
 
39

 
42

 
5

 
86

 
2.1

Subtotal
 
260

 
53

 
85

 
398

 
9.6

Excess and surplus lines
 
61

 
35

 
30

 
126

 
2.9

Total
 
$
2,270

 
$
977

 
$
922

 
$
4,169

 
100.0
%
 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 61



LIFE POLICY AND INVESTMENT CONTRACT RESERVES
 
Gross life policy and investment contract reserves were $2.373 billion at September 30, 2013, compared with $2.295 billion at year-end 2012, reflecting continued growth in life insurance policies in force. We discuss our life insurance reserving practices in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Life Insurance Policyholder Obligations and Reserves, Page 94.
 
OTHER MATTERS
 
SIGNIFICANT ACCOUNTING POLICIES
 
Our significant accounting policies are discussed in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 1, Summary of Significant Accounting Policies, Page 112, and updated in this quarterly report Item 1, Note 1, Accounting Policies.
 
In conjunction with those discussions, in the Management’s Discussion and Analysis in the 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, management reviewed the estimates and assumptions used to develop reported amounts related to the most significant policies. Management discussed the development and selection of those accounting estimates with the audit committee of the board of directors.
 
Item 3.    Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
 
Our greatest exposure to market risk is through our investment portfolio. Market risk is the potential for a decrease in securities’ fair value resulting from broad yet uncontrollable forces such as: inflation, economic growth or recession, interest rates, world political conditions or other widespread unpredictable events. It is comprised of many individual risks that, when combined, create a macroeconomic impact.
 
Our view of potential risks and our sensitivity to such risks is discussed in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7a, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk, Page 100.
 
The fair value of our investment portfolio was $13.022 billion at September 30, 2013, up $556 million from year-end 2012, largely due to an increase in the common equities portfolio of $635 million.
 
(In millions)
 
At September 30, 2013
 
At December 31, 2012
 
 
Cost or
amortized cost
 
Percent to
total
 
Fair value
 
Percent to
total
 
Cost or
amortized cost
 
Percent
to total
 
Fair value
 
Percent to
total
Taxable fixed maturities
 
$
5,743

 
52.4
%
 
$
6,172

 
47.4
%
 
$
5,473

 
51.7
%
 
$
6,137

 
49.2
%
Tax-exempt fixed
  maturities
 
2,759

 
25.1

 
2,866

 
22.0

 
2,749

 
26.0

 
2,956

 
23.7

Common equities
 
2,394

 
21.8

 
3,873

 
29.7

 
2,270

 
21.4

 
3,238

 
26.0

Preferred equities
 
77

 
0.7

 
111

 
0.9

 
99

 
0.9

 
135

 
1.1

Total
 
$
10,973

 
100.0
%
 
$
13,022

 
100.0
%
 
$
10,591

 
100.0
%
 
$
12,466

 
100.0
%
 
At September 30, 2013, our consolidated investment portfolio included $5 million of assets for which values are based on prices or valuation techniques that require significant management judgment (Level 3 assets). This represented less than 1 percent of investment portfolio assets measured at fair value. See Item 1, Note 3, Fair Value Measurements, for additional discussion of our valuation techniques. We have generally obtained and evaluated two nonbinding quotes from brokers; then our investment professionals determined our best estimate of fair value. These investments include private placements, small issues and various thinly traded securities.
 
In addition to our investment portfolio, the total investments amount reported in our condensed consolidated balance sheets includes Other invested assets. Other invested assets included $35 million of life policy loans and liens plus $33 million of private equity investments at September 30, 2013.
 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 62



FIXED-MATURITY INVESTMENTS
 
By maintaining a well-diversified fixed-maturity portfolio, we attempt to reduce overall risk. We invest new money in the bond market on a regular basis, targeting what we believe to be optimal risk-adjusted after-tax yields. Risk, in this context, includes interest rate, call, reinvestment rate, credit and liquidity risk. We do not make a concerted effort to alter duration on a portfolio basis in response to anticipated movements in interest rates. By regularly investing in the bond market, we build a broad, diversified portfolio that we believe mitigates the impact of adverse economic factors.
 
Our investment portfolio had no European sovereign debt holdings at September 30, 2013. On that date, we owned other European-based securities, primarily corporate bonds, totaling $435 million in fair value. We discussed our European-based holdings in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7a, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk, Page 101. The composition of our European-based holdings at September 30, 2013, did not materially change from the $504 million fair value total at year-end 2012.
 
In the first nine months of 2013, the decrease in fair value of our fixed-maturity portfolio was due to a rise in interest rates. At September 30, 2013, our fixed-maturity portfolio with an average rating of A3/A was valued at 106.3 percent of its amortized cost, compared with 110.6 percent at December 31, 2012.
 
Credit ratings at September 30, 2013, compared with December 31, 2012, for the fixed-maturity and short-term portfolios were:
 
(In millions)
 
At September 30, 2013
 
At December 31, 2012
 
 
Fair
 
Percent
 
Fair
 
Percent
 
 
value
 
to total
 
value
 
to total
Moody's Ratings and Standard & Poor's Ratings combined:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Aaa, Aa, A, AAA, AA, A
 
$
5,393

 
59.7
%
 
$
5,544

 
61.0
%
Baa, BBB
 
3,177

 
35.2

 
3,180

 
35.0

Ba, BB
 
239

 
2.6

 
168

 
1.8

B, B
 
15

 
0.2

 
20

 
0.2

Caa, CCC, Ca
 
5

 
0.1

 
2

 
0.0

Daa, Da, D
 

 
0.0

 
1

 
0.0

Non-rated
 
209

 
2.2

 
178

 
2.0

Total
 
$
9,038

 
100.0
%
 
$
9,093

 
100.0
%
 
Attributes of the fixed-maturity portfolio include:
 
 
 
At September 30, 2013
 
At December 31, 2012
Weighted average yield-to-amortized cost
 
4.9
%
 
5.0
%
Weighted average maturity
 
6.1
yrs
 
6.3
yrs
Effective duration
 
4.5
yrs
 
4.2
yrs
 
We discuss maturities of our fixed-maturity portfolio in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 2, Investments, Page 118, and in this quarterly report Item 2, Investments Results of Operations.
 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 63



TAXABLE FIXED MATURITIES
 
Our taxable fixed-maturity portfolio, with a fair value of $6.172 billion at September 30, 2013, included:
 
(In millions)
 
At September 30, 2013
 
At December 31, 2012
Investment-grade corporate
 
$
5,320

 
$
5,388

States, municipalities and political subdivisions
 
309

 
334

Below investment-grade corporate
 
258

 
182

Government sponsored enterprises
 
190

 
164

Convertibles and bonds with warrants attached
 
2

 
31

United States government
 
7

 
7

Foreign government
 
10

 
3

Commercial mortgage backed securities
 
76

 
28

Total
 
$
6,172

 
$
6,137

 
Our strategy is to buy and typically hold fixed-maturity investments to maturity, but we monitor credit profiles and fair value movements when determining holding periods for individual securities. With the exception of U.S. agency issues that include United States government and government-sponsored enterprises, no individual issuer’s securities accounted for more than 1.0 percent of the taxable fixed-maturity portfolio at September 30, 2013. Our investment-grade corporate bonds and commercial mortgage-backed securities had an average rating of Baa1 by Moody’s or BBB+ by Standard & Poor’s and represented 87.4 percent of the taxable fixed-maturity portfolio’s fair value at September 30, 2013, compared with 88.2 percent at year-end 2012.
 
The heaviest concentration in our investment-grade corporate bond portfolio, based on fair value at September 30, 2013, is the financial-related sectors – including banking, financial services and insurance – representing 32.4 percent, compared with 31.2 percent at year-end 2012. We believe our weighting in financial-related sectors is below the average for the corporate bond market as a whole.
 
Most of the $309 million of securities issued by states, municipalities and political subdivisions included in our taxable fixed-maturity portfolio at September 30, 2013, were Build America Bonds.
 
Our taxable fixed-maturity portfolio at September 30, 2013, included $64 million of AAA rated commercial mortgage-backed securities.
 


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 64



TAX-EXEMPT FIXED MATURITIES
 
At September 30, 2013, we had $2.866 billion of tax-exempt fixed-maturity securities with an average rating of Aa2/AA by Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s. We traditionally have purchased municipal bonds focusing on general obligation and essential services issues, such as water, waste disposal or others. The portfolio is well diversified among approximately 1,000 municipal bond issuers. No single municipal issuer accounted for more than 0.7 percent of the tax-exempt fixed-maturity portfolio at September 30, 2013. The following table shows our municipal bond holdings in our larger states:
 
(In millions)
 
Local issued
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
general obligation
 
Special revenue
 
State issued general
 
 
 
Percent of
At September 30, 2013
 
bonds
 
bonds
 
obligation bonds
 
Total
 
total
Texas
 
$
381

 
$
69

 
$

 
$
450

 
15.7
%
Michigan
 
238

 
9

 

 
247

 
8.6

Indiana
 
8

 
234

 

 
242

 
8.4

Illinois
 
207

 
19

 

 
226

 
7.9

Ohio
 
132

 
91

 

 
223

 
7.8

Washington
 
168

 
34

 
5

 
207

 
7.2

Wisconsin
 
105

 
28

 
3

 
136

 
4.7

Pennsylvania
 
82

 
9

 
6

 
97

 
3.4

Florida
 
21

 
63

 

 
84

 
2.9

Arizona
 
53

 
31

 

 
84

 
2.9

New York
 
37

 
26

 
3

 
66

 
2.3

Colorado
 
46

 
18

 

 
64

 
2.2

New Jersey
 
41

 
17

 

 
58

 
2.0

Kansas
 
33

 
22

 

 
55

 
1.9

Utah
 
26

 
19

 

 
45

 
1.6

All other states
 
317

 
257

 
8

 
582

 
20.5

Total
 
$
1,895

 
$
946

 
$
25

 
$
2,866

 
100.0
%
At December 31, 2012
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Texas
 
$
398

 
$
95

 
$

 
$
493

 
16.7
%
Indiana
 
15

 
286

 

 
301

 
10.2

Michigan
 
260

 
12

 

 
272

 
9.2

Illinois
 
226

 
20

 

 
246

 
8.3

Ohio
 
135

 
96

 

 
231

 
7.8

Washington
 
174

 
39

 
3

 
216

 
7.3

Wisconsin
 
106

 
27

 
3

 
136

 
4.6

Pennsylvania
 
83

 
8

 

 
91

 
3.1

Florida
 
21

 
65

 

 
86

 
2.9

Arizona
 
55

 
26

 

 
81

 
2.7

Colorado
 
45

 
19

 

 
64

 
2.2

New Jersey
 
38

 
17

 

 
55

 
1.9

New York
 
29

 
24

 

 
53

 
1.8

Kansas
 
28

 
21

 

 
49

 
1.7

Minnesota
 
36

 
6

 

 
42

 
1.4

All other states
 
285

 
253

 
2

 
540

 
18.2

Total
 
$
1,934

 
$
1,014

 
$
8

 
$
2,956

 
100.0
%
 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 65



Interest Rate Sensitivity Analysis
 
Because of our strong surplus, long-term investment horizon and ability to hold most fixed-maturity investments until maturity, we believe the company is adequately positioned if interest rates were to rise. Although the fair values of our existing holdings may suffer, a higher rate environment would provide the opportunity to invest cash flow in higher-yielding securities, while reducing the likelihood of untimely redemptions of currently callable securities. While higher interest rates would be expected to continue to increase the number of fixed-maturity holdings trading below 100 percent of amortized cost, we believe lower fixed-maturity security values due solely to interest rate changes would not signal a decline in credit quality. We continue to manage the portfolio with an eye toward both meeting current income needs and managing interest rate risk.
 
Our dynamic financial planning model uses analytical tools to assess market risks. As part of this model, the effective duration of the fixed-maturity portfolio is continually monitored by our investment department to evaluate the theoretical impact of interest rate movements.
 
The table below summarizes the effect of hypothetical changes in interest rates on the fair value of the fixed-maturity portfolio:
 
(In millions)
 
Interest Rate Shift in Basis Points
 
 
-200
 
-100
 
 
100
 
200
At September 30, 2013
 
$
9,852

 
$
9,447

 
$
9,038

 
$
8,633

 
$
8,246

At December 31, 2012
 
$
9,888

 
$
9,479

 
$
9,093

 
$
8,704

 
$
8,320

 
The effective duration of the fixed-maturity portfolio as of September 30, 2013, was 4.5 years, compared with 4.2 years at year-end 2012. The above table is a theoretical presentation showing that an instantaneous, parallel shift in the yield curve of 100 basis points could produce an approximately 4.5 percent change in the fair value of the fixed‑maturity portfolio. Generally speaking, the higher a bond is rated, the more directly correlated movements in its fair value are to changes in the general level of interest rates, exclusive of call features. The fair values of average- to lower-rated corporate bonds are additionally influenced by the expansion or contraction of credit spreads.
 
In our dynamic financial planning model, the selected interest rate change of 100 to 200 basis points represents our view of a shift in rates that is quite possible over a one-year period. The rates modeled should not be considered a prediction of future events as interest rates may be much more volatile in the future. The analysis is not intended to provide a precise forecast of the effect of changes in rates on our results or financial condition, nor does it take into account any actions that we might take to reduce exposure to such risks.
 
EQUITY INVESTMENTS
 
Our equity investments, with a fair value totaling $3.984 billion at September 30, 2013, include $3.873 billion of common stock securities of companies generally with strong indications of paying and growing their dividends. Other criteria we evaluate include increasing sales and earnings, proven management and a favorable outlook. We believe our equity investment style is an appropriate long-term strategy. While our long-term financial position would be affected by prolonged changes in the market valuation of our investments, we believe our strong surplus position and cash flow provide a cushion against short-term fluctuations in valuation. Continued payment of cash dividends by the issuers of our common equity holdings can provide a floor to their valuation. A $100 million unrealized change in the value of the common stocks owned at period end would cause a change of $65 million, or approximately 40 cents per share, in our shareholders’ equity.
 
At September 30, 2013, our largest holding had a fair value of 3.0 percent of our publicly-traded common stock portfolio. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) was our largest single common stock investment, comprising 0.9 percent of the total investment portfolio at the end of the third quarter of 2013.
 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 66



Common Stock Portfolio Industry Sector Distribution
 
 
Percent of Publicly Traded Common Stock Portfolio
 
At September 30, 2013
 
At December 31, 2012
 
Cincinnati
 Financial
 
S&P 500 Industry
Weightings
 
Cincinnati
Financial
 
S&P 500 Industry
Weightings
Sector:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Information technology
18.6
%
 
17.9
%
 
16.0
%
 
19.1
%
Industrials
13.8

 
10.7

 
12.9

 
10.1

Financial
11.6

 
16.3

 
11.2

 
15.6

Healthcare
11.4

 
13.0

 
12.2

 
12.0

Consumer staples
10.9

 
10.0

 
11.7

 
10.6

Energy
10.7

 
10.5

 
12.0

 
11.0

Consumer discretionary
9.8

 
12.5

 
9.7

 
11.5

Materials
5.6

 
3.5

 
5.7

 
3.6

Utilities
4.4

 
3.2

 
4.8

 
3.4

Telecomm services
3.2

 
2.4

 
3.8

 
3.1

Total
100.0
%
 
100.0
%
 
100.0
%
 
100.0
%
 
UNREALIZED INVESTMENT GAINS AND LOSSES
 
At September 30, 2013, unrealized investment gains before taxes for the consolidated investment portfolio totaled $2.116 billion and unrealized investment losses amounted to $67 million.
 
The unrealized investment gains at September 30, 2013, were due to a pretax net gain position in our fixed-maturity portfolio of $536 million and a net gain position in our equity portfolio of $1.513 billion. The net gain position in our fixed-maturity portfolio had grown in recent years due largely to a declining interest rate environment. During the second and third quarters of 2013, that portfolio’s net gain position decreased $310 million largely due to lower valuations for fixed-maturity securities from rising interest rates. The net gain position for our current fixed-maturity holdings will naturally decline over time as individual securities mature. In addition, changes in interest rates can cause rapid, significant changes in fair values of fixed-maturity securities and the net gain position, as discussed in Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk. The three largest contributors to our equity portfolio net gain position were Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG) common stocks, which had a combined net gain position of $264 million.

Unrealized Investment Losses
 
We expect the number of securities trading below amortized cost to fluctuate as interest rates rise or fall and credit spreads expand or contract due to prevailing economic conditions. Further, amortized costs for some securities are revised through OTTI recognized in prior periods. At September 30, 2013, 450 of the 2,843 securities we owned had fair values below amortized cost, compared with 68 of the 2,784 securities we owned at year-end 2012. The 450 holdings with fair values below cost or amortized cost at September 30, 2013, represented 9.8 percent of fair value of our investment portfolio and $67 million in unrealized losses.
 
425 of the 450 holdings had fair values between 90 percent and 100 percent of amortized cost at September 30, 2013. Four of these 425 holdings are equity securities that may be subject to OTTI charges taken through earnings should they not recover by the recovery dates we determined. The fair value of these four equity securities was $75 million, and they accounted for $2 million in unrealized losses. The remaining 421 securities primarily consist of fixed-maturity securities whose current valuation is largely the result of interest rate factors. The fair value of these 421 securities was $1.095 billion, and they accounted for $50 million in unrealized losses.
25 of the 450 holdings had fair values between 70 percent and 90 percent of amortized cost at September 30, 2013. Twenty-three of these are fixed-maturity securities that we believe will continue to pay interest and ultimately pay principal upon maturity. The issuers of these securities have strong cash flow to service their debt and meet their contractual obligation to make principal payments. The fair value of these

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 67



23 securities was $107 million, and they accounted for $14 million in unrealized losses. The remaining two equity securities had a fair value of $3 million, and they accounted for $1 million in unrealized losses.
No securities were trading below 70 percent of amortized cost at September 30, 2013.

The table below reviews fair values and unrealized losses by investment category and by the overall duration of the securities’ continuous unrealized loss position.
 
(In millions)
 
Less than 12 months
 
12 months or more
 
Total
 
Total
 
 
Fair
 
Unrealized
 
Fair
 
Unrealized
 
fair
 
unrealized
At September 30, 2013
 
value
 
losses
 
value
 
losses
 
value
 
losses
Fixed maturities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

States, municipalities and political subdivisions
 
$
371

 
$
17

 
$
8

 
$

 
$
379

 
$
17

United States government
 
1

 

 

 

 
1

 

Government-sponsored enterprises
 
190

 
19

 

 

 
190

 
19

Foreign government
 
9

 

 

 

 
9

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities
 
62

 
3

 

 

 
62

 
3

Corporate securities
 
526

 
22

 
35

 
3

 
561

 
25

Subtotal
 
1,159

 
61

 
43

 
3

 
1,202

 
64

Equity securities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Common equities
 
74

 
3

 

 

 
74

 
3

Preferred equities
 
4

 

 

 

 
4

 

Subtotal
 
78

 
3

 

 

 
78

 
3

Total
 
$
1,237

 
$
64

 
$
43

 
$
3

 
$
1,280

 
$
67

At December 31, 2012
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Fixed maturities:
 
 
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

States, municipalities and political subdivisions
 
$
53

 
$
1

 
$

 
$

 
$
53

 
$
1

Government-sponsored enterprises
 
1

 

 

 

 
1

 

Corporate securities
 
58

 
1

 
17

 
1

 
75

 
2

Subtotal
 
112

 
2

 
17

 
1

 
129

 
3

Equity securities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Common equities
 
107

 
9

 

 

 
107

 
9

Preferred equities
 
4

 
1

 

 

 
4

 
1

Subtotal
 
111

 
10

 

 

 
111

 
10

Total
 
$
223

 
$
12

 
$
17

 
$
1

 
$
240

 
$
13

 
At September 30, 2013, nine fixed-maturity securities with a total unrealized loss of $3 million had been in an unrealized loss position for 12 months or more. Of that total, no fixed-maturity securities had fair values below 70 percent of amortized cost; one fixed-maturity security with a fair value of less than $1 million had a fair value from 70 percent to less than 90 percent of amortized cost and accounted for less than $1 million in unrealized losses; and eight fixed-maturity securities with a fair value of $43 million had fair values from 90 percent to less than 100 percent of amortized cost and accounted for $3 million in unrealized losses.
 
At September 30, 2013, no equity securities had been in an unrealized loss position for 12 months or more.
 
At September 30, 2013, applying our invested asset impairment policy, we determined that the $3 million in total unrealized losses in the table above were not other-than-temporarily impaired.

During the third quarter of 2013, no securities were written down through impairment charges. A total of five were written down during the nine months ended September 30, 2013. OTTI resulted in pretax, noncash charges of $2 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2013. During the same periods of 2012, we wrote down securities resulting in $2 million and $32 million in OTTI charges.
 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 68



During full-year 2012, we wrote down 13 securities and recorded $33 million in OTTI charges. At December 31, 2012, four fixed-maturity investments with a total unrealized loss of $1 million had been in an unrealized loss position for 12 months or more. Of that total, no fixed-maturity investments had fair values below 70 percent of amortized cost. No equity investments had been in an unrealized loss position for 12 months or more as of December 31, 2012.
 
The following table summarizes the investment portfolio by severity of decline:
 
(In millions)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
At September 30, 2013
 
Number
of 
issues
 
Cost or 
amortized
cost
 
Fair
 value
 
Gross 
unrealized 
gain/loss
 
Gross
investment
income
Taxable fixed maturities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fair valued below 70% of amortized cost
 

 
$

 
$

 
$

 
$

Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of amortized cost
 
198

 
876

 
829

 
(47
)
 
19

Fair valued at 100% and above of amortized cost
 
1,202

 
4,867

 
5,343

 
476

 
199

Securities sold in current year
 

 

 

 

 
10

Total
 
1,400

 
5,743

 
6,172

 
429

 
228

Tax-exempt fixed maturities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Fair valued below 70% of amortized cost
 

 

 

 

 

Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of amortized cost
 
246

 
390

 
373

 
(17
)
 
6

Fair valued at 100% and above of amortized cost
 
1,103

 
2,369

 
2,493

 
124

 
73

Securities sold in current year
 

 

 

 

 
3

Total
 
1,349

 
2,759

 
2,866

 
107

 
82

Common equities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Fair valued below 70% of cost
 

 

 

 

 

Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of cost
 
4

 
77

 
74

 
(3
)
 
2

Fair valued at 100% and above of cost
 
70

 
2,317

 
3,799

 
1,482

 
79

Securities sold in current year
 

 

 

 

 
1

Total
 
74

 
2,394

 
3,873

 
1,479

 
82

Preferred equities:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Fair valued below 70% of cost
 

 

 

 

 

Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of cost
 
2

 
4

 
4

 

 

Fair valued at 100% and above of cost
 
18

 
73

 
107

 
34

 
5

Securities sold in current year
 

 

 

 

 

Total
 
20

 
77

 
111

 
34

 
5

Portfolio summary:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Fair valued below 70% of cost or amortized cost
 

 

 

 

 

Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of cost or amortized cost
 
450

 
1,347

 
1,280

 
(67
)
 
27

Fair valued at 100% and above of cost or amortized cost
 
2,393

 
9,626

 
11,742

 
2,116

 
356

Investment income on securities sold in current year
 

 

 

 

 
14

Total
 
2,843

 
$
10,973

 
$
13,022

 
$
2,049

 
$
397

At December 31, 2012
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Portfolio summary:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Fair valued below 70% of cost or amortized cost
 

 
$

 
$

 
$

 
$

Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of cost or amortized cost
 
68

 
253

 
240

 
(13
)
 
8

Fair valued at 100% and above of cost or amortized cost
 
2,716

 
10,338

 
12,226

 
1,888

 
496

Investment income on securities sold in current year
 

 

 

 

 
31

Total
 
2,784

 
$
10,591

 
$
12,466

 
$
1,875

 
$
535

 
See our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Critical Accounting Estimates, Asset Impairment, Page 47.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 69



 

Item 4.        Controls and Procedures
 
Evaluation of Disclosure Controls and Procedures – The company maintains disclosure controls and procedures (as that term is defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (Exchange Act)).
 
Any controls and procedures, no matter how well designed and operated, can provide only reasonable assurance of achieving the desired control objectives. The company’s management, with the participation of the company’s chief executive officer and chief financial officer, has evaluated the effectiveness of the design and operation of the company’s disclosure controls and procedures as of September 30, 2013. Based upon that evaluation, the company’s chief executive officer and chief financial officer concluded that the design and operation of the company’s disclosure controls and procedures provided reasonable assurance that the disclosure controls and procedures are effective to ensure:
 
that information required to be disclosed in the company’s reports under the Exchange Act is recorded, processed, summarized and reported within the time periods specified in the Securities and Exchange Commission’s rules and forms, and
that such information is accumulated and communicated to the company’s management, including its chief executive officer and chief financial officer, as appropriate, to allow timely decisions regarding required disclosures.

Changes in Internal Control over Financial Reporting – During the three months ended September 30, 2013, there were no changes in our internal controls over financial reporting that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, our internal control over financial reporting.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 70




 
Part II – Other Information

Item 1.        Legal Proceedings
 
Neither the company nor any of our subsidiaries is involved in any litigation believed to be material other than ordinary, routine litigation incidental to the nature of our business.
 
Item 1A.    Risk Factors
 
Our risk factors have not changed materially since they were described in our 2012 Annual Report on Form 10-K filed February 27, 2013.
 
Item 2.        Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds
 
We did not sell any of our shares that were not registered under the Securities Act during the first nine months of 2013. The board of directors has authorized share repurchases since 1996. Purchases are expected to be made generally through open market transactions. During the third quarter of 2013, we acquired 141,341 shares for $7 million from associates as consideration for options exercised. During the first nine months of 2013 we acquired 461,863 shares for $22 million from associates as consideration for options exercised. The board gives management discretion to purchase shares at reasonable prices in light of circumstances at the time of purchase, subject to SEC regulations. On October 24, 2007, the board of directors expanded the existing repurchase authorization to approximately 13 million shares. We have 6,665,375 shares available for purchase under our programs at September 30, 2013.
 
Period
 
Total number
 of shares
 purchased
 
Average
 price paid
 per share
 
Total number of shares 
purchased as part of
publicly announced
plans or programs
 
Maximum number of
shares that may yet be
purchased under the
plans or programs
July 1-31, 2013
 
15,325

 
$
49.06

 
15,325

 
6,791,391

August 1-31, 2013
 
88,935

 
49.04

 
88,935

 
6,702,456

September 1-30, 2013
 
37,081

 
45.88

 
37,081

 
6,665,375

Totals
 
141,341

 
48.21

 
141,341

 
 

 


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 71



Item 3.        Defaults Upon Senior Securities
 
We have not defaulted on any interest or principal payment, and no arrearage in the payment of dividends has occurred.
 
Item 4.        Mine Safety Disclosures
 
Not applicable.
 
Item 5.        Other Information
 
None.
 
Item 6.        Exhibits
 
Exhibit No.
 
Exhibit Description
3.1

Amended and Restated Articles of Incorporation of Cincinnati Financial Corporation (incorporated by reference to the company’s 2010 Annual Report on Form 10-K dated February 25, 2011, Exhibit 3.1)
3.2

Regulations of Cincinnati Financial Corporation, as amended through May 1, 2010 (incorporated by reference to the company’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2010, Exhibit 3.2)
31A

Certification pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes Oxley Act of 2002 – Chief Executive Officer
31B

Certification pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes Oxley Act of 2002 – Chief Financial Officer
32

Certification pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes Oxley Act of 2002
101.INS
 
XBRL Instance Document
101.SCH
 
XBRL Taxonomy Extension Schema Document
101.CAL
 
XBRL Taxonomy Extension Calculation Linkbase Document
101.DEF
 
XBRL Taxonomy Extension Definition Linkbase Document
101.LAB
 
XBRL Taxonomy Extension Label Linkbase Document
101.PRE
 
XBRL Taxonomy Extension Presentation Linkbase Document
 


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
Page 72



SIGNATURE
 
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.
 
CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION
Date: October 24, 2013

/S/ Eric N. Mathews
Eric N. Mathews, CPCU, AIAF
Vice President, Assistant Secretary and Assistant Treasurer
(Principal Accounting Officer)


Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2013 10-Q
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