Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) turned a corner in 2024, setting it up to sustain and accelerate growth. The video game business has normalized following the COVID-19 bubble bursting, and numerous catalysts are on the horizon. The primary is scheduled releases for top franchises, including Grand Theft Auto VI, Borderlands 4, and Mafia: The Old Country, slated for launch in 2025. Until then, the quarterly results show sequential improvements that show business momentum is back, providing a launch pad for growth as the new products hit the market.
Take-Two: Weak Results Could Have Been Worse
Take-Two had a decent quarter in FQ2 2025, considering the recent trends. The company logged $1.35 billion in net revenue, a gain of 3.8% compared to last year, driven by recurrent spending from existing users. Recurrent spending grew by 8%, revealing gamers' loyalty. It accounts for 80% of the net, but it is offset by weakness in other categories.
The Mobile and PC platforms are the areas of strength, up 14.5% and 16% as gamers shifted away from console-driven titles. The critical takeaway is that net bookings are up, if only by 2%, showing a 9% sequential increase, with the new titles expected to boost interest among existing and new gamers in upcoming quarters.
The margin news is mixed with GAAP losses continuing to mount but the news is not all bad. The losses are narrowing compared to last year and sequentially as revenue improves and are expected to revert to profits in F2026. The critical detail is that cash flow is positive in the first half of fiscal 2025 and sufficient to sustain operational quality and balance sheet health. Balance sheet highlights include cash and assets up at the end of Q2, partially offset by increased liability and equity up 2.3%. Liability remains low with long-term debt of roughly 0.5X equity.
Analysts Raise Targets for Take-Two Interactive Software
Take-Two Interactive’s guidance isn’t all that impressive, but the outlook for calendar 2025 is. The company lowered its target for F2025 revenue to a range with the mid-point below the consensus but expects sequential improvement to continue and for net-bookings growth in F2026.
The outlook isn’t robust but is sufficient to invigorate analysts to raise their price targets. The first half dozen or so tracked by MarketBeat increased the price target, lifting the consensus estimate by more than 3% in one day. The consensus implies an 8% upside from the pre-release closing price, but the revisions suggest a higher move. The high-end range is near all-time highs, which may be reached in early 2025.
Institutions are providing a tailwind for the market. The net of institutional activity is buying in 2024, with quarterly activity bullish in Q3 and the first half of Q4. Their activity is compounded by short interest, which runs near historical highs—not high enough for a short squeeze but high enough for short-covering to positively impact the price action. With this in play, the market for Take-Two could quickly rise to its all-time highs and then move up to set new highs.
Take-Two Interactive Sets Fresh High: Higher Highs Are Coming
Take-Two’s market reacted favorably to the Q2 news. The stock price surged more than 5% to set a fresh multi-year high, and it is on track to reach the analysts' consensus target before the end of the year. However, the stock remains within a trading range with numerous potential resistance points, including $180. Each could produce volatility, if not a small-to-medium-sized price pullback, as the stock price ratchets higher.
