Many investors are going full macro mode right now, focusing too much on today’s data and not on tomorrow’s implications. The U.S. election is coming up in a little over a month, a new earnings season is underway, and lots of economic data is pending for the Federal Reserve (the Fed) to consider further interest rate cuts before 2024 is over.
So far, the path is set for more rate cuts, with other countries starting to follow this same view, China being the latest to cut by 50 basis points last week. Some are still pointing to economic data like unemployment and contracting manufacturing PMI index readings for the past 22 months to quote a ‘hard landing,’ but sticking to this view might keep these investors 100% bearish and potentially miss out on some of the potential rallies that can still be had.
One potential rally can be found in shares of Salesforce Inc. (NYSE: CRM), especially now that Wall Street has reiterated a new boost on the stock’s price target, pointing to further upside in the coming quarters. The reason behind the boost is exactly what retail investors should focus on in their portfolio strategy, and it has to do with the economy and business model for cloud businesses in the technology sector.
What If the Bears Are Right? What Happens to Salesforce Stock?
A bearish scenario for the S&P 500 doesn’t have to mean a bearish scenario for all stocks. If the bearish scenario plays out, unemployment might keep heading higher, and businesses will have to look for alternatives in hiring and managing their workforce today.
This is where Salesforce stock comes into play. As a cloud-based platform, Salesforce can streamline and improve most business processes in today’s economy. This means cost savings and increased efficiency for its customers. So, if unemployment is on the rise in this bearish scenario, businesses can keep expensive employees on payroll or adjust for the slowdown by implementing technology.
Salesforce stock bulls can now understand where new demand will come from, but the rest of the business model is what will deliver the stability and predictability that helped Wall Street analysts land a higher price target. Cloud service businesses like Salesforce, Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE), and Workday Inc. (NASDAQ: WDAY) all operate under a subscription model, which can be critical during a hard landing.
Why? Subscriptions provide more predictable and stable cash flows for the companies that receive them, making projections and valuations easier to calculate despite any uncertainty and volatility in the overall market. That’s for the bearish side, but what if the bulls are right and the market actually does well?
Salesforce also has a bullish scenario at play: Businesses need to use the platform to manage the higher business activity if the economy does manage to pull a ‘soft landing’. Whichever way investors look at Salesforce stock, there is a path for it to move higher, which is why Wall Street analysts felt comfortable boosting it.
Where Analysts See Salesforce Heading Next
The consensus price target for Salesforce stock is now set at $308 a share, which calls for a net 11.3% upside from where the stock trades today. Those at Wedbush stand out from the pack, with a recent price boost as recently as last week, setting the valuation up to $325 a share, calling for a much higher 17.5% net upside from today’s price.
Wedbush is not alone, however, as analysts at Piper Sandler agreed on a $325 price target for Salesforce stock last week. This shows investors that the rest of Wall Street sentiment is now shifting to the bullish end for this company, and both economic scenarios seem to back the business model’s predictability and stability for the future.
Even though Salesforce stock trades at 86% of its 52-week high today, there is still much more upside aside from current analyst upgrades. Compared to the rest of the computer sector, Salesforce offers a discount based on several valuation multiples.
On a price-to-earnings (P/E) basis, Salesforce trades at a 49.8x multiple. This current valuation places Salesforce at a 78.5% discount to the computer sector’s average P/E valuation of 232.7x today, creating a path for a potential new 52-week high for Salesforce.
On a price-to-book (P/B) basis, Salesforce trades at a 4.6x valuation compared to the computer sector’s valuation of 7.2x. This shows investors how Salesforce stock could have more room to move higher despite already trading near its 52-week high. The bullishness in the face of this discount didn’t stop on Wall Street, however.
Those at Centaurus Financial decided to boost their holdings in Salesforce stock by 23.4% as recently as September 2024, bringing their net investment up to $3.2 million today. Even the Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan doubled its holding in September, bringing its net allocation up to $48.1 million to show investors another bullish angle for Salesforce stock.
