Durable goods orders, oil prices, Saudi OSP’s

July 27, 2022 at 17:18 PM EDT

Not adjusted for inflation but not showing signs of recession: If oil prices remain near current levels the inflation is over and we’re back to pre-Covid low inflation and slow growth, with a government deficit of maybe 5-6% of GDP (including the new interest expense from the rate hikes which support the economy) supporting demand […] The post Durable goods orders, oil prices, Saudi OSP’s appeared first on Mosler Economics / Modern Monetary Theory .

Not adjusted for inflation but not showing signs of recession:

If oil prices remain near current levels the inflation is over and we’re back to pre-Covid low inflation and slow growth, with a government deficit of maybe 5-6% of GDP (including the new interest expense from the rate hikes which support the economy) supporting demand and a Congress that believes the deficit has to come down to contain inflationary pressures.

But I think it’s far more likely that oil prices spike much higher as Saudis have hiked prices again and are working with Russia to destabilize the west. And with higher oil prices it all falls apart again:

Saudi Arabia sets Aug crude prices to Asia at near-record high | Reuter

The official selling price (OSP) for August-loading Arab Light to Asia was raised by $2.80 a barrel from July to $9.30 a barrel over Oman/Dubai quotes, state oil producer Saudi Aramco (2222.SE) said on Monday, close to the record high premium of $9.35 per barrel hit in May.

Putin and MBS discuss oil less than week after Biden visit to Saudi Arabia (axios.com)

The post Durable goods orders, oil prices, Saudi OSP’s appeared first on Mosler Economics / Modern Monetary Theory.

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Durable goods orders, oil prices, Saudi OSP’s