It didn’t have to be this bad.
History isn’t on President Joe Biden’s side heading into the 2022 midterms. The president’s party averages a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats in midterm elections.
The present isn’t being kind to Joe Biden either. Inflation is out of control. Gas prices are sky-high from coast to coast. And Biden’s reputation for competence hasn’t recovered from the Afghanistan debacle, which showed the world his staff really aren’t the "adults in the room" they claim to be.
Yet these headwinds only tell half the story. Joe Biden and Democrats have managed to make things worse. From attempting to buy off their base with marijuana pardons to making plumbers pay for the student loans of lawyers, Biden and company have struck out more than the New York Yankees against good pitching.
Biden’s mistakes break down into three main categories. But a common thread runs through all of them: misplaced priorities.
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First and foremost, Democrats have had absolutely no message on the number one issue on voters’ minds: the economy.
They thumped their chests when gas prices dropped by a few cents in late summer 2022, but when they ticked back up, the administration ricocheted between completely ignoring the issue and blaming it on a host of other random factors.
I’ll be the first to admit: There are no good answers when you’re in their shoes. But they made their bed, and they needed to lay in it.
They spent too much. Inflation and gas prices went up. But they can’t admit where things actually stand, so they make it up as they go along. Why not throw some spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks?
But voters smell desperation and incoherence like sharks smell blood. You may think you’re fooling them, but you’re not.
Democrats had no answers on the economy and that was where it all started.
Since they were flummoxed for answers on the economy, they attempted to change the question itself. That led Democrats to go all-in on abortion.
Searching for a lifeboat in early summer with a red wave on the rise, they clung to the Dobbs' decision like a life raft appearing from the sky. When the cards are stacked against you, you play the hand you’re dealt. I get that. But over and over, polling showed abortion simply wasn’t the dominant issue on voters’ minds. An August NBC News poll had the issue tied as the 6th most important nationally, below climate change and immigration. Voters in an October CBS News survey ranked it seventh. A New York Times poll found only four percent saw it as their top issue.
But partisan wish-casters masquerading as objective analysts denied reality. I’ll concede the issue’s salience could play a role on the margins in certain races here and there, but neglecting the number one issue in poll after poll – the economy – was a massive strategic error.
By the time the Democrats woke up as summer turned to fall, it was too late.
When all is said and done on Election Night, watch for crime to be the issue that played a large role in a host of races – particularly those in blue areas like Connecticut and, most notably, the New York gubernatorial race.
Just a few days ago, GOP candidate Rep. Lee Zeldin accused Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul of refusing to punish people who commit crimes. She casually dismissed it, responding, "I don't know why that’s so important to you."
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When Democrats hear voters feel unsafe or crime has gone up, they do one of the following: dismiss it, accuse people of making it up, or break out the spreadsheets like a bunch of accountants to "well, actually" us into believing certain crimes in certain areas are not as bad compared to certain years.
Here’s the thing: you can parse all you want, but if people feel unsafe, it doesn’t matter what the exact statistics say. You can’t just dismiss it.
It’s the same as trotting out macroeconomic data to a mom paying more for groceries and uncertain about her job. You can’t quantify the anxieties someone faces on an Excel sheet. Telling them it’s all in their head is a recipe for disaster.
Throughout the 2022 campaign, Democrats missed the mark over and over. They compounded their tough environment with a series of strategic errors and misplaced priorities.
It didn’t have to be this bad. But thanks to their own incompetence, it will.
